On the Move: Breaking Down D.K. Metcalf On the Steelers

D.K. Metcalf is in Pittsburgh, and the fit will be fascinating. The Steelers have massively upgraded the talent in their WR room with this move. Last season the pass-catching options were George Pickens and, uh…..yeah just George Pickens. Metcalf certainly brings massive big play ability to the table, but he also brings a pure X receiver skill set which is basically what Pickens is. Perhaps this means the Steelers are teetering on the end of their patience with Pickens, and Metcalf is here to replace him? Time will tell, but right now, we must operate as if these two are going to have to co-exist.

Last season, these players were like mirror images of one another. They each averaged seven targets per game. Metcalf averaged 4.4 receptions, 66.1 yards and 15 yards per catch with a 13.1 average depth of target (ADOT). Pickens averaged 4.2 receptions, 64.3 yards and 15.3 yards per catch with a 13.3 ADOT. We have to all make our own decisions when we rank in the offseason how we think teams will deploy players, and my best guess is that they’ve brough in D.K. to be their X receiver, while they’d hope that Pickens can move around the formation more and wreak havoc in more creative ways. I arrived there based on the fact that Metcalf has played X receiver almost exclusively for his entire career, and dominated. Metcalf has never posted fewer than 900 yards in any season and has cracked the 1,100-yard mark twice. And while 2024 was a down year for him, Metcalf was still plenty good.

He posted a 69.4% success rate vs. man, which is down from previous seasons and certainly sets off an alarm bell, even if it’s not a red alert. Should Metcalf no longer be an elite man-beater, well then this contract is disastrous, and he will fail to be a fantasy relevant receiver because he’s always struggled vs. zone defenses, and he was at his worst vs. zone in 2024 (71.3% success, 10th percentile). But part of his drop off vs. man could be usage. The Seahawks were transitioning to a new scheme, and while 23% of his routes were nines, which he succeeded on at a 62% clip, and 21.3% of his routes were slants, which he crushed, they also had him running tons of curls where his success rate was 47.2%. That’s gross, and it’s a poor way to use Metcalf, who has never been a precise route runner.

With the Steelers, Metcalf is now in an Arthur Brown offense, and while Brown is a bit of a punching bag, we have seen big time players thrive in his scheme. A.J. Brown developed into a superstar with Brown running the Titans offense, and while Metcalf ain’t A.J. Brown, he certainly has a lot of similar traits.

There’s one more question that might be even more important than Metcalf’s deployment, and that is who the hell is throwing him the ball? The tea leaves are pointing to Aaron Rodgers joining the squad, and while that might seem to some like a massive upgrade from Russell Wilson and Justin Fields last year in Pittsburgh, I’m not so sure. The Steelers had a bottom 10 pass blocking offensive line per PFF in 2024, and Rodgers, at an advanced age, is not in the business of hanging in the pocket and getting smacked in order to deliver deep shots. Rodgers might have fun hitting Metcalf on slants, but we love D.K. for downfield playmaking, and that’s honestly more aligned with a Russell Wilson reunion than with Rodgers. Pittsburgh committed heavily to Metcalf, so they clearly believe he’s not on the decline, and that 2024’s dip was a mix of a new, poorly fitting offense and some unhappiness with his situation. If Wilson returns, I believe he’ll have no problems reconnecting with Metcalf and making D.K. a big Draft Day value. If it’s Rodgers under center, Metcalf will still be a must-roster player, but I’ll be much more bearish on his ultimate 2025 ceiling.