On the Move: Breaking Down Deebo Samuel to the Commanders

Deebo Samuel is a Washington Commander. One of the NFL’s best offenses in 2024 appears to have gotten exactly what it needed to build upon the surprising success of last season, and ensure that they’re not a one-hit wonder. But did they really? Samuel is a big name in these parts, but a look under the hood should make us question how much he really changes things from a year ago.

There’s no question that Washington needed another pass-catcher. Terry McLaurin was a beast, but beyond him their second-most targeted WR was Olamide Zaccheus, who was thrown to just 64 times, turning them into 45 receptions, 506 yards, 3 TD. With a QB as gifted as Jayden Daniels, they must do everything they can to load up around him while he’s on a rookie deal, and acquiring Samuel can add a layer of unpredictability to an attack that’s already a nightmare due to the dual threat Daniels presents. That’s if he’s not cooked.

Reception Perception notes that Samuel is still a load to take down, going down on first contact on just 33% of his opportunities in space, and breaking multiple tackles on 29.5% of his touches. That’s great. But as a WR, Samuel has never been one who really gets open of his own accord, and in that respect he’s worse than ever. Samuel posted a sub-40% success rate against man coverage in 2024. Again, this was never Samuel’s game, but that’s an active detriment to the offense. He also declined to 67% against zone coverage, a number that’s not catastrophic, but also isn’t elite, which it needs to be when you’re cratering vs. man. Samuel was excellent running slants and routes to the flat, which makes sense. He’s a beast in space and a pill to tackle after the catch, so San Francisco spammed those routes, making them 31.6% of his routes. He was dreadful on curls and nine routes, which made up another 25% of is routes and really hurt the 49ers offense.

There was a huge red flag for Deebo that was raised in 2024, and it’s that when a slew of injuries hurt the 49ers – Christian McCaffery didn’t even make it to Week 1 and Brandon Aiyuk was lost for the season relatively early – Samuel’s production and usage didn’t pick up. He had nine fewer receptions and 222 fewer receiving yards in 2024 than he did in 2023, which was a relatively healthy year for San Fran. He also saw a sharp fall-off in his rushing efficiency, despite the 49ers losing RBs left and right. His yards per attempt fell by half from 6.1 to 3.2, he only put up 136 yards on 42 carries (tied for second most in his career), and he only scored one rushing touchdown. After years of punishing usage, Deebo quite simply seems like he’s slowing down.

And while he’s been an exciting name for fantasy managers for a few years now, and a player who tantalizes us with upside, the truth is more often than not he’s been a letdown as a fantasy asset. We all were in awe of his 2021 magic carpet ride in which he posted over 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. We should also remember that that was his only 1,000-yard receiving season in his career. In fact, Samuel has never even had a 900-yard receiving season besides the 2021 breakout. Samuel has never played a full season’s worth of games, and only broken 1,000 yards from scrimmage one other time (2022).

At the end of the day, Samuel has always been a uniquely gifted player who required a creative offensive mind to get the most out of him. For years he had that with Kyle Shanahan, and when healthy, he produced at a high level for fantasy. Even if the season-long numbers aren’t always impressive, on a per game basis Deebo has usually been helpful. 2024 marked a shift away from that, even though he was still with Shanahan, and injuries should have led to him being leaned on even more heavily as a focal point. Now he leaves the place which fully unlocked his ability, and he enters an offense that was thriving in 2024, but needs certain things he’s not going to give them. If Washington continues to add around Deebo and McLaurin, and allows Deebo to be a specialized player, he becomes interesting. Zone coverage is a must against a rushing threat like Daniels, and allowing Deebo to pound those zones out of the slot sounds like WR2 upside to me. But if Samuel is expected to come in and be a true WR2, operating as a flanker for Jayden Daniels, I’m concerned for those who draft him and for Washington’s offense as a whole. Time will tell, but I’m expecting the name value of Deebo to be paired with the excitement for Daniels and the Commanders as a whole to make his ADP a number I’ll be uncomfortable with on Draft Day.