On the Move: Breaking Down Davante Adams on the Rams

Davante Adams is 32 years old, had a down year for his lofty standards in 2024, and will play for his fourth team this season. He also will not be paired up with his buddy Aaron Rodgers, with whom he saw his production spike after lackluster stats for much of last season. Getting older in sports is never a positive, but Adams is definitely at an age where decline can be steep for the WR position. Have the Rams overspent on a fossil, or is there still dominant football left in the tank for one of the best of his generation?

Adams was extremely unhappy in Las Vegas to start the season and the world knew it. It showed up in his play. In three games he caught 18 passes for 209 yards and one touchdown. Once he finally was traded and suited up for the Jets, there was a reacclimation period with Rodgers before the pair took off, and his final line with the Jets read 67 receptions, 854 yards and seven touchdowns. In total, the “down” year for Adams is 85 catches, 1,063 yards and eight touchdowns. It’s certainly not bad for a guy many might dismiss in drafts under the premise that he’s too old. The ugly games stood out, but there’s plenty of evidence that Adams is still an upper crust receiver.

He's still a masterful technician, shredding DBs in man coverage to the tune of a 74.6% success rate, good for the 80th percentile, and also busting press coverage at a 79.2% rate, placing him in the 89th percentile. Those numbers are pretty close to what he was posting in 2023, when I was pushing him as a still elite option who was being undervalued. However, there is definitely also the presence of decay in his game, and it shows up against zone. Adams’ success vs. zone in 2023 was 84.4%, a 90th percentile mark, and that absolutely cratered last year to 77%, dropping him to the 37th percentile. While 77% isn’t catastrophic, it is way off what we expect from him, and is a sign of significant fall-off for a player of his archetype. That number, plus his age, is probably enough for me to treat him as if he’s a very good receiver now rather than an elite one.

But there’s good news, and it’s that he’s landed in a truly ideal spot for where he’s currently at. The Raiders QBs were arguably the worst in the NFL in 2023, and when he got to the Jets, Rodgers was an upgrade, but still a man in his early 40s playing behind a porous line in maybe the worst-coached offense in football. Nothing about either environment for Adams was positive, and he still turned in a 1,000-yard campaign with eight touchdowns. Now he’s in a Sean McVay offense, with Matthew Stafford. Stafford is also aging, but he hasn’t shown any of the decline we’ve seen from Rodgers. Not only that, Adams will not be relied upon to be the alpha here, as Puka Nacua powers this pass attack. Last year’s Puka-Cooper Kupp tandem looked on paper just as potent as Puka-Adams does, but I’m of the mind that Puka and Adams are actually much more dangerous.

Puka and Kupp duplicated each other in many ways, and Puka had to take over as the primary outside receiver most  of the time. He’s a stud, and he can do it, but he’s best suited to be in the Kupp role of mostly slot, but also moving all over the formation and giving defenses headaches. He can do that now, while Adams operates as a true X receiver, something the Rams haven’t had since Odell Beckham Jr. helped them win a Super Bowl. Adams should be allowed to use his refined skills to slaughter overmatched DBs on the outside as defenses focus all their attention on where Puka Nacua is, and he’s still good at those things. Adams posted 80%+ success rates on slants, digs, outs and comebacks last year, and also won on nearly 60% of his nine routes.

With his age and being separated from Rodgers again, we should expect a drop in volume for Adams. Puka Nacua is one of the best receivers in football, and he’s going to be among the most-targeted in this offense that is now built around him. But Stafford is known for peppering his top targets, meaning Adams, as a clear No. 2 here, should see a ton of work. He’s also a strong bet for lots of end zone targets, as the Rams were sixth in the NFL in pass attempts in the red zone. A sixth straight 1,000-yard season is surely within reach for Adams, but I’d bank on double-digit touchdowns for him before I count on that level of yardage.

His ADP last year was No. 17 overall, and if it’s in that neighborhood again, it’ll be too rich for my blood. But if folks are spooked by his age and there’s a big ADP drop, I’ll happily scoop him up and enjoy the trips to the end zone.