On the Move: Breaking Down Cooper Kupp on the Seahawks

Cooper Kupp and the Rams have broken up, severing one of the prolific and entertaining QB/WR duos in the NFL. The end of this relationship was swift and stunning, and now Kupp is with the division rival Seahawks. He’s an interesting fit there considering Seattle is in the midst of a rebuild, and that their alpha occupies the slot a good amount of the time he’s on the field.

While Kupp’s end in Los Angles was shocking, and certainly murdered tons of fantasy managers, it’s not like his whole season was a free fall off a cliff. Kupp was injured early and missed Weeks 3-8, but his averaged in the games he played from Weeks 1-11 were vintage Kupp. During that span he averaged 7.8 receptions and 81.3 yards while scoring four touchdowns. He was targeted in the double-digits four times in that span, including 21 targets in Week 1 when Puka Nacua went down early, and he put up 100+ yards three times during this stretch. On the stat sheet, Kupp looked like nothing was all that different for him in this offense.

Then, the fall off occurred. From Weeks 12-17 his averages plummeted to 3.3 receptions and 37 yards. He saw double-digit targets just once in Week 12, and had three or fewer catches in four different games. He even had a Week 15 doughnut vs. the 49ers in which he caught ZERO of his three targets. Just unfathomable stuff from a guy who won the Triple Crown in 2021.

The truth here is that there was surely decline in the play of Kupp, and we can safely proceed forward considering him well diminished from his peak. His Reception Perception profile noted that his ability to win on in-breaking routes diminished big time, and those routes being central to Sean McVay’s offense are what led to such a dramatic lack of target share down the stretch. Kupp was never an elite man-beater, but his success rate vs. man coverage fell to 50.5%, a catastrophic figure that put him in the 3rd percentile. His press coverage success rate was at 41.4%, similarly catastrophic, and also 3rd percentile. His zone coverage success was predictably much better, but at 76.2% it was no longer elite. That number put Kupp in just the 30th percentile, down from 83.3% success and the 86th percentile in 2023. This all paints the picture of Kupp as a receiver who isn’t totally washed, but who is now significantly more one-dimensional than he had been, and who could no longer fulfill the needs of McVay’s offense.

The question is now can he fill Seattle’s needs? We don’t know, as Seattle’s offense is being overhauled, but we do know some thing. We know that D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone, vacating 182 targets, an immense number. We know that Kupp has thrived when seeing heavy volume; even with diminished success rates across his entire route tree, we highlighted big fantasy numbers in the first half of the season with high volume. We know that he can still catch the ball at an elite level. Kupp posted just a 2% drop rate last year, and was victorious on 66.7% of his contested catch scenarios. And we know that he remains extremely effective on outs (78.1%) and flat routes (81.3%). The last piece of the puzzle is how he meshes with Seattle’s new clear-cut WR1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN broke out in a big way toward the end of last season, but he spent a lot of his time working from the slot. Of course, JSN is a versatile player who should be effective all over the formation, but the three-year, $45 million commitment to Kupp means the Seahawks aren’t viewing him as just a flier. Everything about his performance of late points to a slot-only player, and that’s going to make JSN basically a full-time outside receiver. If the Seahawks commit to that, it is possible that Kupp winds up being a value on Draft Day because even a diminished version should be peppered with targets in this offense. But if JSN maintains heavy slot usage, and Kupp is asked to move around, I can see him running lots of routes but not drawing a ton of targets. In that scenario – which is the more likely of the two considering JSN’s effectiveness out of the slot – Kupp might be a disappointing player in 2025 unless your league has accounted for cardio.