On the Move: Breaking Down Derrick Henry to the Ravens

Derrick Henry is a fascinating player heading into 2024. He is in his age 30 season, typically a major cliff for veteran RBs, especially ones with as much tread on the tires as Henry has. He is also changing teams, and leaving a franchise which made him the alpha and omega of their offense for many successful years. And yet, he’s always been an outlier at the position, continually dominating despite his offense losing playmakers around him, and despite annual workloads that have sped up other players’ demises. So how should we treat the newest Baltimore Raven?

Let’s start with the red flags, as there are some big ones. Henry logged 280 carries despite playing a full 17 games, putting him at below 20 rushing attempts (16.5) for the first time since 2018. His 68.6 yards per game were also the lowest since 2018, and his explosiveness seemed diminished, as his yards per touch dropped below five for the first time since 2017. All of this makes sense for a power back who has passed age 30, and logged more than 300 carries thrice in the past five campaigns. That kind of work is unsustainable for almost any player aside from future Hall of Fame genetic freaks. Oh wait…Henry is one of those.

While his peak is surely behind him, there is a clear path to major fantasy relevance for him and it was on display in 2023. First of all, he graded as PFF’s No. 3 RB; while that isn’t an end-all, be-all, it goes to show that maybe the inconsistency fantasy managers experienced last year wasn’t entirely because Henry’s getting old and worn out. His 12 rushing touchdowns tied for fifth among RBs last season, and it was his sixth consecutive season with double-digit scores. He also lifted Tennessee’s middling run-blocking unit, which graded 18th per PFF, but was second in Power Success (FTN Fantasy) because of Henry’s short-yardage and goal line prowess.  

In addition to running behind a far superior line in Baltimore, this is an offense that led the NFL in rushing attempts (541) in 2023 despite moving on from run-first offensive coordinator Greg Roman and losing their star RB J.K. Dobbins in Week 1. This offense was fourth in the NFL in DVOA (19.1%) and was tops in the league in Rushing DVOA (18.1%). Everything here is lined up for Henry to get another big workload behind one of the NFL’s elite units. Additionally, while he has the greatest rushing QB of all time looming as a touchdown vulture, Lamar Jackson does not score on the ground at the rate of QBs like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. He hasn’t scored more than five rushing TDs since 2020, and of his five last year, only one came from inside the five-yard line.

After this deep dive, Henry is primed to buck the trend of age-30 and older RBs falling off a steep cliff. Henry’s past his prime, but he’s still a high-end RB who should improve his efficiency by operating in a better offense behind a far greater offensive line. His receiving work is non-existent, but that’s always been the case, and the main competition for him, Keaton Mitchell, profiles as a low-touch, high-efficiecny player. Volume will be there, as will short-yardage touchdown chances, making Henry a likely value in 2024 drafts.