On The Move: Breaking Down Aaron Jones on the Vikings
After seven seasons in Green Bay as an upper echelon back, for real life and fantasy football, Aaron Jones is moving on to the rival Vikings, and may actually get the chance to be a full-fledged bell cow. His independence from a committee has been something fantasy managers have longed for, but with Jones turning 30 this season, is it too late? And is he actually a bell cow in Minnesota? Let’s figure it out.
2023 was a frustrating year for Jones and his managers, as he battled injuries that limited him to 11 games. In those 11 games, however, he still showed that he has plenty in the tank. He graded out as a Top 10 RB per PFF, and he comes out one spot better when you just isolate his rushing grade. As a runner of the football, Jones was still elite when he was on the field, and his 4.6 yards per carry speak to him maintaining his excellence. Jones is also a coveted species for fantasy managers -- a dual threat RB. Targets are worth more than carries in our game, and RBs who can supplement their production with receiving, especially in half-point of full PPR formats are gold. Jones averaged 20+ receiving yards in 2023 for the fifth consecutive season, and he averaged 5.2 yards per touch. Last season was the first time in five seasons that he failed to hit 1,1000 yards from scrimmage, but that was due to the missed time. He was still pacing at 80 scrimmage yards per game, which would’ve put him at more than 1,300 yards for the year across 17 games.
Jones’ tough season seemed to boil down to injuries limiting his playing time, and a lack of touchdowns. Jones totaled just three touchdowns last season, a bit of an outlier number for his career and in line with Jordan Love posting a Top 6 TD % last season (5.5%). Jones is typically a good bet for touchdowns, having notched double-digit scores in three of the past five seasons (but not the last two), and his three in 2023 were the lowest of his career.
Moving on to Minnesota, the goal line touches should belong to him, as Alexander Mattison was allowed to leave to Las Vegas, and Ty Chandler is currently his main competition. Age 30 has long been considered a cliff for RBs, but Jones has been reasonably well-preserved by the Packers. Jones, for all that prolific stat accumulating, has only logged 200+ carries three times in seven seasons, leading to less wear and tear than other star RBs his age. He’s joining a Vikings offense that’s primed to change for his benefit. The Vikings were a bottom five offense in terms of rushing attempts last season, but they also had middling RBs (Cam Akers, Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler), and are downgrading at QB from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold, or a rookie. With a far less reliable QB at the helm, and a team-high 180 carries out the door (Mattison), Jones is going to walk in and be the focal point of the running game, and an important safety valve for whoever is the QB, especially with TE T.J. Hockenson set to miss time.
At his age, and coming off a disappointing season, Jones will surely be dropping in ADP from No. 38, which he was last year. This makes Jones a screaming value next year, particularly for teams who splurge early on a onesie position like QB or TE. If you’re able to do that and secure Aaron Jones a little bit later, you’ll find yourself in nice shape because he can still ball.