On The Move: Breaking Down Keenan Allen & D'Andre Swift to the Bears

The Chicago Bears are undergoing a full remodeling this offseason, and it appears clear that they’ll select USC QB Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick after jettisoning Justin Fields to Pittsburgh for a questionable haul (conditional 6th-round pick). The Bears aren’t going to repeat the mistake the made with Fields though, throwing him to the wolves with subpar weaponry. The Bears have made some additions to increase firepower, and for fantasy, the most notable ones are WR Keenan Allen and RB D’Andre Swift. Let’s see how their outlook has changed upon moving to the Windy City.

We’ll begin with Allen, whom many thought might begin his decline last season, only to be surprised by Allen turning in arguably the greatest season of his illustrious career thus far. He was the fifth-highest scoring WR in fantasy in points per game, setting career highs in multiple categories including 108 receptions, 1,243 yards, 8.3 receptions per game. His seven touchdowns were not a peak for Allen, but is one of the best marks he’s ever had. Allen was a devastating force, and his dominance was even more impressive because his running mate, Mike Williams, only played in three games. Williams and Allen worked in tandem for a long time because Williams’ skill set complemented Allen’s and reduced attention on him. When Allen is freed up, he becomes unguardable, and he didn’t have that luxury in 2023 because the receivers who filled in for Williams weren’t on that level.

That was borne out by his lowered success rates on nines, posts and outs, where he saw below average success, but he feasted on opponents on just about every other pattern. Allen, at age 31, still beat man coverage at a 71.4% clip – better than he did in 2022, mind you – and he posted an 80% success rate vs. zone coverage, all while being the obvious focal point of opposing defenses. Of course, he did this with an elite QB, Justin Herbert, slinging the ball, and he won’t have that in Chicago. We have high expectations for Caleb Williams, but he’s still a rookie and nothing is guaranteed. With that said, Williams is far more talented than most rookie QBs, and Allen will have DJ Moore as a running mate, one of the true elite WR1s in the NFL. Moore is Mike Williams+, and the idea of having two high-end technicians to scheme against is a nightmarish prospect for defensive coordinators. Allen’s stock might not have risen much with this move, but it's a testament to Caleb Williams’ potential, and the stature of DJ Moore that moving away from Herbert doesn’t ding the stock at all. This offense is undergoing a complete makeover, and the ball will be flying through the air often. Keenan Allen will be a value on Draft Day.

On the flip side, Swift’s arrival is a boon for the offense as a whole, but not likely a positive for his fantasy value. While Swift finally got volume in 2023, and responded by setting career-highs in rushing attempts (229), rushing yards (1,049) and yards from scrimmage (1,263), usage was somehow still an issue. Swift was often taken off the field in goal line scenarios, a problem that plagued his managers for years in Detroit, and he also ceded opportunities to QB Jalen Hurts. The QB rushes won’t be an issue in Chicago for Swift, but losing work to Kenneth Gainwell isn’t promising for a player who is now sharing time with Khalil Herbert. Despite playing behind an elite line in Philadelphia, an area where he’s now downgrading significantly, Swift graded pretty poorly per PFF, barely cracking the Top 45 and proving to be a poor pass-blocker. That kind of information points to an early-down back at best, and a pure handcuff to Herbert at worst. Swift had an ADP of No. 64 last season, while Khalil Herbert had an ADP of No. 96. Those likely won’t change much, although I’d expect Swift to be a bit higher entering 2024. Swift’s ADP would make me a bit nervous, while Herbert’s will represent a value without D’Onta Foreman around plowing into the end zone. Second-year banger Roschon Johnson looms as a frustrating goal line hammer, but Swift and Herbert are much more talented, well-rounded players. Unfortunately for Swift, he’s probably not a value where he gets drafted.