On The Move: Breaking Down Tony Pollard on the Titans

Tony Pollard was a disappointing player for fantasy managers last season who drafted him in the first round on the promise that he would ascend to a new level with Ezekiel Elliott gone and all that volume to himself. Pollard did see a massive volume increase in 2023, but he did not produce more with it, and now finds himself in a new town, having been signed by the Tennessee Titans. His arrival likely murders hope for Tyjae Spears becoming a new fantasy stud this season, but what do we do with Pollard after he let us down?

It's important to note that Pollard was coming off a serious injury at the end of the 2022 season, and no one can be sure the extent to which that affected his production drop-off in 2023. It’s also worth noting that despite that injury, Pollard amassed over 1,000 rushing yards and 1,300 yards from scrimmage, hardly terrible marks. The main issue is that until last year, Pollard had been an efficiency darling, which had managers salivating at his upside with more work. Well, Pollard logged 59 more carries last year than in 2022, and turned it into two fewer yards on the ground, while his yards per carry dropped by more than a full yard, and fell below five for the first time since 2020. His receiving also fell off, as his yards per catch dipped by four full yards, and he totaled 60 fewer receiving yards despite 16 more receptions.  

Lastly, we all cried foul every time Elliott came on the field in 2022 and scored touchdowns when Pollard was more responsible for helping Dallas march down the field. Well, Pollard carried the ball a whopping 16 times inside the five-yard line in 2023, and he only managed two touchdowns. His teammate Rico Dowdle scored the same amount of touchdowns on just four carries inside the five, and no other RB with at least 16 carries inside the five scored fewer than six times on those attempts. So while the knee injury might have sapped some of Pollard’s explosiveness – longest run of 2023 was 31 yards vs. 57 in 2022 – and hurt his efficiency, Pollard seemed to prove Dallas’ skepticism in prior seasons to be well-founded.

Now, Pollard moves to an offense that is significantly worse than the one he’s leaving, and actually has more of an in-house threat to his work. Tyjae Spears emerged last season as a viable playmaker for this team, and actually ate into Derrick Henry’s longtime dominance of the snap share. Spears, ironically, appears to be in the same role Pollard occupied in Dallas for several years; undersized, explosive, and effective when given opportunities. Pollard actually graded very favorably per PFF, coming in as their No. 15 RB, but Spears was right behind him at No. 18 with superior receiving and pass-blocking grades. It’s impossible to be sure how these RBs will be deployed, especially because they have similar skill sets, but if Tennessee is paying attention to these grades, it’s not hard to envision Pollard with early-down work and ceding passing down action to Spears. This takes advantage of Pollard’s stellar rushing ability, but also reduces wear and tear on both players. If that’s the case, it is tough to foresee either RB being a high-end RB1 for fantasy managers, especially since Spears’ build doesn’t lend itself to short-yardage work, and Pollard’s issues in short yardage have already been documented. Tennessee could very well add a hammer to this RB room for that specific role, driving down the value of both players and frustrating people like us tremendously.

All in all, Pollard should be a useful fantasy option in 2024. His ADP will determine whether he’s a value or a bust risk. But he’s leaving one of the best offenses in the league and joining what was one of the worst in 2023, while adding stiffer competition. He is a player I like, but his outlook certainly has taken a hit from this time last year, when I was extremely excited. Now, I’m hoping his ADP really drops and he can become undervalued.