On The Move: Breaking Down Josh Jacobs on the Packers

Josh Jacobs was a pretty big bust in 2023 following a career-best 2022 campaign, and now finds himself gone from the only team he’s known, the Las Vegas Raiders. History isn’t always kind to RBs on second contracts with new teams, but this offseason has seen a ton of RB movement, and Jacobs is the highest-profile back to move aside from Saquon Barkley. Will joining one of 2023’s premier offenses rejuvenate him?

While Jacobs’ name is glossy, his performance in 2023 was subpar. He graded as PFF’s No. 50 RB, while his backfield mate, the returning AJ Dillon, was 22nd . More on that later. His 3.5 yards per carry and six touchdowns were both career-worsts, and 2023 marked the first time in his career that Jacobs fell below 1,200 yards from scrimmage. Jacobs also took a step back from 2022 in receiving production, but the most alarming fact about his 2023 production was that he rushed for 848 fewer yards. There are certainly contributing factors outside Jacobs’ control, but there’s no sugarcoating how alarming a drop like that is.

Now, we’ll add some context. For starters, Jacobs has always been a volume-based back, and not always a model of efficiency. 2022 was an outlier, but he’s been at four yards per carry or fewer in three of his five seasons. He’s never faced stiff competition for work in Las Vegas, and that shouldn’t change in Green Bay, even with Dillon back in the fold. That’s a great thing, because he’s massively upgrading his offensive environment moving to Green Bay. The Raiders were 21st in the NFL in Weighted Offensive DVOA (-4.1%) while the Packers were third (19.1%), and that was driven largely by their No. 4 Pass DVOA. The running game lagged behind despite ranking inside the Top 10 of Adjusted Line Yards, likely due to mediocre performances from the RB position that Jacobs is tasked with upgrading.

Another factor that should boost Jacobs’ fantasy outlook in 2024 is his prowess near the goal line. The Packers only scored 10 rushing touchdowns last season, tied for the fourth-fewest in football. Jacobs has scored 12 rushing TDs twice in his career, and nine in 2021. Packers RBs scored only two rushing TDs in 2023 from the two-yard line or closer; even QB Jordan Love had three. Five of Jacobs’ six touchdowns last season were hammered home from the two yard line or closer. Looking at AJ Dillon might make you think he’s a threat to Jacobs in this regard, but he’s never scored more than seven rushing TDs in a season and never usurped Aaron Jones as the primary goal line option despite Jones being small and injury-prone.

Green Bay was an elite offense last season, but they identified the running game as a weakness in 2023 that was covered up by Jordan Love’s potentially unsustainable 5.5% TD rate, a mark that was sixth in the NFL among QBs with at least 50 pass attempts. The Packers’ decision to simultaneously release Jones signals a full commitment to Jacobs as the bell cow back, only bolstering an attack that was extremely potent last year. A return to double-digit touchdowns seems incredibly likely for Jacobs here, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all for him to return first round value.