On The Move: Breaking Down Saquon Barkley to the Eagles

This offseason has been an insane one for player movement that affects fantasy managers, but perhaps no move is more impactful than Saquon Barkley heading to the Philadelphia Eagles. There is a lot to unpack with this move, so let’s dig in and see if the new situation is actually better for one of fantasy’s long time elites.

Barkley has never known life outside of the Giants organization, and over the past few years, when healthy, he’s succeeded largely in spite of the poorly built team around him. It’s been years since Barkley has been able to play alongside quality skill players, behind a competent offensive line, and with a prolific QB. Last season was arguably a nadir for Barkley in terms of a supporting cast. He was the alpha and omega of Big Blue’s anemic offense, and almost all of the Giants’ production was on the back of Barkley.

The Giants’ line ranked dead last in adjusted line yards (3.35) per FTN Fantasy, and their -18.9% Run DVOA was the fourth-worst mark in the league. The Giants were even worse as a passing offense, coming in as the third-worst in Pass DVOA, and their overall Weighted DVOA, -16.1%, was fourth-worst in football. PFF wasn’t any more favorable to this unit, grading them as the worst overall line in football (61), and the third-worst run-blocking outfit (41.1). Their best QB last season per PFF was Tyrod Taylor, but the only QB they had that met the snap minimum was Tommy DeVito, who graded 31st in the NFL. Compounding matters, the Giants didn’t have any WRs sniff the Top 50 per PFF, with only Darius Slayton cracking the Top 65, as the 64th-best on the season. I think we get it, this team sucked and was devoid of playmakers, quality passers or effective blocking in either phase of offense. And yet, with all this stacked against him, Barkley was a Top 10 RB in half-PPR formats per game, and he racked up over 1,200 yards from scrimmage while scoring double-digit touchdowns for the second consecutive season.

Barkley is now fleeing this abyss for a divisional rival that is absolutely stacked at the skill positions, and an offensive line that ranked as the third-best run-blocking unit (74.9) and was the second-best in terms of Stuffed %, getting stuffed only 14% of the time. This means big holes for Barkley to show off his elite athleticism and breakaway speed, and road graders in short-yardage to potentially blow up his TD numbers.

However…Barkley will have an easier time producing when he gets the ball, but his opportunity is sure to be decreased. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are big play threats in the passing game and regularly produce long touchdowns, while QB Jalen Hurts has scored 28 rushing TDs in the past two seasons, largely on the strength of the “Tush Push,” a.k.a. the most unstoppable play in football. Now, center Jason Kelce has retired, and he was a critical element of the Tush Push’s success, but Hurts’ prowess will undoubtedly cost Barkley TD opportunities.

 So, is it better for Barkley to upgrade every part of his situation, or be the primary option on a lower-scoring, less effective offense? While volume is king in fantasy, Barkley’s still going to see plenty of opportunities to do damage. This move is ideal for him, especially since he’s entering his age-27 season with a lot of mileage on the odometer the past two years. What he’ll lose in volume he’ll gain in efficiency, and even with Hurts around, Barkley is a near lock for double-digit TDs again. This is a phenomenal move for him, and Barkley should be a Top 5 pick in 2024.