Low Risk High Reward: Logan Thomas Is a Consistent Gem Overshadowed by Flash

If you aren’t interested in spending big on a premier tight end, and aren’t comfortable with the risk of a high-variance late pick like David Njoku, who I wrote about here, Logan Thomas fits the bill as a low-risk, high-reward option. While Thomas is probably not going to threaten a Top 5 finish, there’s ample reason to believe he’ll be a productive season-long TE, and he does not cost very much at all.

Thomas isn’t explosive like TEs that go in front of him, and his weak 63.4 PFF grade, which put him just 37th in the NFL at the position, indicate a player who isn’t going to wow anybody on tape or strike fear into a secondary. With that said, Thomas is a pretty consistent producer, and who ultimately cares how the stats come?

Thomas broke out in 2020 when he caught 72 passes for 670 yards and six touchdowns, but even more notably, he had 10 games in 2020 with at least four receptions. 2021 was spoiled by injury, but he kept that same energy when he played, catching three or more passes in all five games he played, and finding the end zone in three of them. Maybe Thomas’ physical traits won’t wow you, but he relies on volume and scoring and has proven he can consistently score if given the volume.

Enter new QB Carson Wentz. While Wentz has been maligned for his erratic play the last few years, he’s actually been underrated if you are just going off the stat sheet. Wentz, for all his warts, threw 27 touchdown passes vs. only seven interceptions for the Colts in 2021. More importantly, Wentz knows how to use his TEs.

In 2018, Wentz targeted Zach Ertz 156 times, and Eagles TEs saw 200 targets. The following season, Ertz and Dallas Goedert were the top two targets of the Eagles’ offense, drawing 222 targets combined. And in 2020, Wentz’s last season with the Eagles, he threw to TEs 168 times. If Thomas was able to be a Top 10 TE in 2020 on 110 targets from Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke, he will be able to put up numbers with Carson Wentz, and a receiving corps that will depend on him. Outside of Terry McLaurin, currently mired in a contract dispute, and perhaps rookie Jahan Dotson, Wentz’s options aren’t appealing. Expect him to pepper Thomas regularly with targets and look for him near the end zone. Thomas posted an 18.6% TE DVOA last year per Football Outsiders, ninth in the league at the position. So yeah, don’t expect splash plays like you’d get from Mark Andrews, or even mid-tier guys like Dallas Goedert. Instead, expect high volume, a bit less efficiency, and some exciting TD numbers.