Low Risk High Reward: Tim Patrick A Victim of Narrative, Major Draft Value

Fantasy managers are very excited about Denver WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, because finally these talented pass-catchers will have a legitimately great QB passing them the ball. And while there’s no doubt going from Drew Lock to Russell Wilson is about as big an upgrade as you’ll find, we shouldn’t be so sure it’s Suttton and Jeudy that will benefit the most.

While Sutton has proven himself across four NFL seasons with subpar quarterbacking, Jeudy, a first round pick in 2020, has not had quite as much success. As a rookie he turned 113 targets into only 52 receptions, scoring only three touchdowns and posting an 8.8% drop rate. Last season he cut his drops, but the year was injury-marred and he did not find the end zone. And while we have seen Russell Wilson routinely support two high-end fantasy WRs, Tim Patrick is lurking as a perennially underrated option in this Broncos WR corps. 

Patrick caught 53 passes for 734 yards and five touchdowns last season while dealing with the same mediocre quarterbacking that Sutton and Jeudy had. Patrick has 11 touchdowns to Jeudy’s three in the past two seasons (five more games than Jeudy), he averaged almost two yards more per catch than Jeudy in 2021, and he graded out better than Jeudy per PFF, while matching Sutton’s 71.2 overall mark. But perhaps the most shocking statistic is that per Football Outsiders, Patrick posted a 15.2% WR DVOA, the 16th-best mark in the NFL last year. Sutton’s DVOA was only 3.7% (41st) and Jeudy’s was flat 0.0% (55th). While dealing with all the same QB issues, Patrick was pretty much Denver’s best receiver last year.

Patrick’s per game targets, receptions and yards were all nearly identical to both Sutton and Jeudy or greater, he scored three more touchdowns than Sutton and Jeudy combined, and now he’s getting one of the biggest QB upgrades in the sport. With that in mind, Sutton is currently going No. 62 (26th WR), and Jeudy is being taken 67th (31st WR), while Patrick is lasting all the way to No. 164 (65th). That gap is completely based on Sutton’s upside and Jeudy’s draft capital, and not at all accounting for how well Patrick has played the last few seasons. He is a major value, and he could even be a legitimate WR2 with Wilson running the offense.