Low Risk High Reward: Marcus Mariota Has A QB1 Ceiling And Will Be Free In Drafts

Nailing a first round pick feels great, as does being right about a mid-round sleeper. But many times, the true league winners are drafted very late and rather than explode in value, simply provide usefulness that deepens your roster to a championship level. Today, we are going to take a look at Falcons QB Marcus Mariota, starting again for the first time since 2019, as a player who could be shockingly useful in 2022.

Mariota, a former No. 2 overall pick, has truly been disappointing in his career. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance and stretches of dominance from him, but the dual threat monster he was at Oregon hasn’t shown up consistently at the NFL level. Still, the Falcons have moved on from Matt Ryan and have given Mariota the keys based on 30 pass attempts as the Raiders backup in the past two seasons. That’s a pretty small sample size, so what little he did in Las Vegas has to be supplementing what they already thought of him during his Tennessee days. And what Mariota did well in those years might actually translate pretty well for the Falcons.

Mariota’s never been a guy to wing it a ton, so the high-volume Falcons passing offense is gone. In his first two seasons, though, Mariota was very efficient, posting a 5.1% TD rate as a rookie and then 5.8% as a second-year passer before that efficiency fell off. That second year was his finest, when he threw 26 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, finishing the season with a career-best 3,426 yards. Atlanta must be banking on him being capable of that efficiency once again, because their skill position group is built to assist that endeavor. TE Kyle Pitts is an athletic freak of nature for the position, hybrid player Cordarrelle Patterson scored a touchdown every 20 opportunities (carry or target), and first-round WR Drake London posted an 85.2% contested catch rate at USC, making him a premium red zone and goal line option for Mariota. But all of this just makes him a streamer if he doesn’t utilize his separating characteristic, which is his ability to gash defenses as a rusher.

Mariota’s legs made him electric at Oregon, and he averaged 20+ yards per game on the ground in each of his first four seasons with the Titans. Despite his talent, the Titans were reluctant to really use him regularly, and he never averaged even five rushing attempts per game. Times have changed, and it isn’t considered taboo anymore to have a “running QB.” Seven QBs – Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Tyler Huntley, Kyler Murray, Trey Lance, Justin Fields – averaged six or more attempts per game, and Jackson led the way with 11.1 per game. Mariota never averaged fewer than 5.2 yards per carry as a Titan, and it’s likely the Falcons will let him use his greatest assets. He’s no longer the high-round pick who must be protected, and this is a roster devoid of trustworthy RBs. Patterson is a hybrid who wore down as the year went on, Damien Williams is a proven part-time player, and rookie Tyler Allgeier might pop, but he’s a fifth-round pick. If Mariota can create a high floor for himself with his rushing, and be efficient with these big receiving targets, it’s not unthinkable to see a path to being a back-end QB1.

 Yes, you’d be hoping on efficiency stats we haven’t seen since 2015 and 2016. Sure, he has a rookie QB breathing down his neck named Desmond Ridder. Yes, if the Falcons suck – and they likely will – he could be benched so the coaches can see what they have in Ridder. His current ADP is No. 190 overall per Fantasy Pros, and he’s going 30th at the position. You can easily take a QB earlier and then burn one of your final three picks on Mariota as a lottery ticket, and wind up with two tradeable assets in-season. The rushing ability really is a ceiling raiser, and at this ADP there’s barely any risk at all.