Low Risk High Reward: Raheem Mostert An RB1 Buried Among the Handcuffs
Raheem Mostert was a player discussed here, in the thick of the avalanche of player movement this offseason. The Dolphins’ backfield is very murky, and it’s unlikely that any of the backs in this crowded backfield wrest full control without multiple injuries occurring. But…it does not make sense that Chase Edmonds is being drafted 59 picks ahead of Mostert.
The knock on Mostert is very simple: he doesn’t stay healthy. The best ability is availability, as the cliché goes, and Mostert has never shown that ability. No spring chicken, Mostert’s been in the NFL since 2015, but did not break out until 2019. He has never gotten more than 137 carries in a season, nor has he ever reached the 800-yard mark. So durability isn’t on his side, and his resume does not include benchmarks we like to see in order to rely on players at his position. But rather than focus on that, let’s hone in on what he’s capable of, because Mostert may not need elite volume to shine.
Mostert has averaged 5.7 yards per carry for his career, and in his finest season put up 772 yards and eight touchdowns on only 137 attempts with the 49ers. Sure, RBs tend to thrive in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but Miami’s new coach Mike McDaniel was part of that staff and went out and brought Mostert in to run behind this revamped offensive line. Mostert really saw his opportunity increase toward the end of the season, scoring seven of his eight rushing touchdowns in the final six games, averaging 6.06 yards per carry on 11.7 attempts.
As far as the crowded backfield goes, Edmonds, while an elite pass-catcher, has never been trusted as an every-down option in his career, and could wind up with a near-50/50 split with Mostert, which is fine when you account for Mostert’s incredible efficiency. Mostert also has proven the speed to not only rack up chunk plays, but take them to the house. In 2019 three of his eight touchdown runs were from 35 yards or further, and in 2020 he had touchdowns of 76 and 80 yards.
The fly in the ointment could be Sony Michel, who was added later in the offseason and could be leaned on as a touchdown vulture when Miami is in close. This offense has a ton of skill players competing for stats; Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki will all want theirs, as will Chase Edmonds. Mostert will be efficient, but he will still need at least moderate volume to be reliable on a weekly basis. Michel is a threat, but throughout his career he’s been more bust than boom.
The packed skill positions and addition of Michel do add risk to Mostert, but at pick No. 152, he’s become an afterthought. He’s being drafted in a range where handcuffs to heavy-usage RBs go, and he’s not going to be a mere handcuff to Edmonds, who has never logged more than 116 carries. Edmonds has nine career rushing touchdowns, and only three have come from inside 10 yards. There’s a good chance that Mostert splits snaps with Edmonds, and earns the majority of goal line work, and he’s going after clear handcuffs like Nyheim Hines, Khalil Herbert and Jamaal Williams. That’s a lot of upside for very, very little draft capital.