Put Up Or Shut Up Players: Tua Tagovailoa Is Out of Excuses
Tua Tagovailoa is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football and in real life. There are pretty much two camps; the first consists of people who think he is a colossal first round bust, and that his failures are magnified by the success of Justin Herbert, who was taken in the same class. The other camp believes Tua has suffered from expectations that were too high as a rookie coming off a catastrophic hip injury in college, a rough narrative due to replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick as a rookie even though Fitz had the offense humming, and a poor offensive line.
The deterioration of Tua’s perception has been stunning, because this was a guy whom teams were tanking for in 2019. He was prolific at Alabama, throwing 76 touchdowns vs. only nine INTs in his final two seasons. So we will begin with the positives of his NFL career. Tua entered the NFL with a reputation for accuracy, and that’s what he’s given Miami. He completed 64.1% and 67.8% of his passes in his first two seasons, even though he threw more interceptions last season (10) than he did in his sophomore and junior seasons combined with the Crimson Tide. It’s worth noting the conditions under which Tagovailoa posted that near-70% completion rate, because he was playing behind the absolute worst pass-blocking offensive line in football per PFF.
The most baffling part of Tua’s slow start to his career has been his – or the Dolphins’? – unwillingness to let it rip down the field. Maybe that is due to the poor offensive lines, but Tua came into the league with a reputation for deep accuracy.
He averaged 13.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt as a junior, and that number was at 6.5 in 2021 with Miami. One has to imagine that will change with the addition of Tyreek Hill to the receiver mix, even though star rookie Jaylen Waddle, a player with a similar skill set to Hill, only averaged 7.3 yards per target. In fact, the Dolphins have revamped the skill position players around Tua, signaling to him that it’s do or die this year. Waddle proved himself a capable WR1 after putting up 104 receptions, 1,015 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. He’ll now be one of the best WR2s in the sport with Hill entering the fray. It’s a bit frustrating to see Waddle receive such short targets and have to do so much of his damage after the catch, but Hill is a premier, proven deep threat who can hopefully unlock Tagovailoa’s vaunted downfield accuracy while also freeing up even more space for Waddle to cook defenders. The Dolphins also added an explosive pass-catching weapon in the backfield for Tua by signing ex-Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds. Edmonds has averaged more than seven yards per reception in each of the last three seasons and caught 96 passes across the past two seasons.
But all of this is rendered moot if the offensive line doesn’t pick up the pace. We know they ranked last per PFF as a pass blocking unit, but just for color, here’s what Tua was dealing with. In 13 games Tua was blitzed 100 times, hurried 45 times, hit 24 times while passing, pressured 89 times, sacked 20 times and faced pressure on 20.9% of his attempts. It would be difficult for any QB to thrive under attack like that, and that context actually makes his accuracy pretty impressive. Miami added OT Terron Armstead and G Connor Williams in an effort to beef up the protection for Tua, hopefully buying some time to find Hill streaking toward the end zone.
We have been spoiled lately by guys like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, players in Tua’s draft class, who showed elite traits right out of the gate. Sometimes it takes time for a player to make good on his upside, especially when massive, career-threatening hip injuries are in the player’s history. Tagovailoa has been underwhelming for sure, but he’s also played behind a porous line and had some coaching staffs not believe in him enough to remove the training wheels. In Year 3, it's definitely time to shake off any and all excuses. We will know whether Tua has it after this season, and so will the Dolphins. I’m in Camp 2 by the way, and I see the path to a Top 12 finish.