Put Up Or Shut Up Players: Jalen Hurts' Time Is Right Now
Jalen Hurts was not a player I was high on entering the 2021 season. I compared him to Giants’ disaster Daniel Jones when I wrote this, and harped on his shortcomings as a passer. Hurts had posted a 56.4 PFF rating entering last season, his 52% completion rate, and other unfavorable metrics while downplaying his ceiling as a rusher. And Hurts’ performance for fantasy managers last season made my takes embarrassing.
Hurts improved as a passer, earning a 69.2 grade from PFF (77.1 overall), and while nobody would call him lethal from the pocket, he did enough to keep Philadelphia’s offense potent and managed boom games. He threw for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns twice in 2021, posted six multi-TD pass efforts and saw his QB rating rise to 87.6. As a rusher, he blew away his previous grades and became one of the absolute best rushing QBs in the NFL. He rushed for 784 yards (1st), 10 touchdowns (1st), averaged 52.3 yards per game on the ground (2nd) and 9.3 attempts per game (2nd). As a fantasy option, Hurts was dominant, and even more importantly, he was consistent. But as far as real life evaluations go, Hurts still has a lot to prove with regard to leading an actual NFL franchise to actual success. For all the statistical improvement as a passer, Hurts did seem on the verge of being benched at times when he’d fall into a rut, and Philadelphia’s moves this offseason could either bode well for his long term future or spell doom.
Most notably, the Eagles pulled off the stunner of the NFL draft when they acquired WR A.J. Brown, a bona fide stud to pair up with DeVonta Smith, their 2021 first round pick. Those two also share the load with TE Dallas Goedert, a high-upside player the fantasy community has been awaiting a breakout from. The Eagles are telling Hurts the time is now, and if he doesn’t make major strides with this kind of artillery at his disposal, there’s clearly a problem. He’s also playing behind the NFL’s third-best pass blocking line in 2021 per PFF, so the stage is set for him to breakout beyond punishing defenses as a rusher.
I clearly was wrong to compare him to Daniel Jones last offseason, but would I be wrong to imply that he might actually blossom into Lamar Jackson in 2022? As a rookie, Jackson took over the offense and had many of these criticisms leveled at him because he was a raw passer. Jackson threw just five touchdown passes in seven starts, completed 58.2% of his passes, and posted an 82.6 QB rating. He also averaged 79.4 yards per game on the ground and scored four rushing touchdowns in those seven starts. Hurts profiles very similarly to that version of Jackson, and while Hurts isn’t a burner like Lamar, which means lower yardage totals, he was still extremely reliable for rushing stats. He rushed for 50+ yards eight times in 15 games and dipped below 30 rushing yards once all season.
While no one would compare Jackson as a passer to the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, he has evolved to the point where he is considered a dangerous threat with his arm capable of massive blow up games, as well as a useable passing floor. That is what needs to happen for Hurts to cement himself as an elite fantasy option, and the Eagles have put the pieces in place for that to happen. Nothing is guaranteed, but I’m betting that Hurts ends up being one of the premier values of 2022 on draft day.