Leap To Elite: Dallas Goedert Has The Goods To Be The New Mark Andrews
Remember last season when Mark Andrews forcibly took the TE crown from Travis Kelce? While I wasn’t able to predict an overall TE1 finish for Andrews, I wrote here that he was being underrated. It’s happening again with Dallas Goedert.
Goedert had a nice season in 2021, finishing the season with 56 receptions, 830 yards and four touchdowns. These are useable, but not elite, numbers for fantasy manager and they’re not the kind of production that will have many reaching for him on draft day. That kind of thinking is for the uninitiated. An elite fantasy – and real life – TE is lurking within Goedert, and 2022 is as good a time as any to be unleashed. First, Goedert was a darling for advanced stats. He ranked as PFF’s No. 2 TE behind only Mark Andrews, and tied with 49ers star George Kittle. He earned a 91.1 receiving grade from PFF, second only to Kittle’s 91.2. Goedert posted the NFL’s best TE DVOA (34.7%) per Football Outsiders, 220 DYAR (Defenase Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), third best among tight ends, and 922 Effective Yards, good for fourth at the position.
It’s worth mentioning that Goedert’s numbers for the full season are noticeably worse than if you start in Week 7, when fellow TE Zach Ertz was traded to the Cardinals. Goedert averaged 3.7 receptions and 55.4 yards per game on the year, but those numbers jump to 4.1 and 61.4 without Ertz in the picture. Goedert is the clear-cut TE1 on the team now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his competition for target share has lessened.
The Eagles threw the ball 494 times last season, the fewest pass attempts of any team in football. Goedert, for all his obvious talent, drew just 15% of those targets, although that also jumps to 22% from Weeks 7-17, without Ertz. Maybe even 22% doesn’t sound like enough to dominate? Mark Andrews’ target share in 2020 was 21.6%, and the Ravens, wait for it, had thrown the fewest passes in the NFL prior to his breakout.
I had this to say about Andrews:
“Jackson, a former MVP, is in a class of running QBs with Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Colin Kaepernick, who, at their best, all supported two major fantasy pass-catchers. In Newton’s and Kaepernick’s cases, they each supported high-end TEs (Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis, respectively). To thrive in this environment, a pass-catcher needs to be a target-hound, a big-play/TD threat, or both. Andrews absolutely fits the latter description; he averaged 16.2 yards per game as a rookie, and even though that dropped to 12.1 yards last season, he was fourth among TEs with at least 50 targets with a 10.2 ADOT (average depth of target).”
Goedert’s yards per reception leapt to 14.8, a career-best by a wide margin, and 8.5 ADOT. The biggest difference between Goedert and Andrews’ profiles are that Goedert has much better WR options to compete with than Andrews. DeVonta Smith was already a strong option who figures to draw a lot of looks based on his talent level as well as the draft capital spent on him (1st round), and then the Eagles traded for star receiver A.J. Brown. That can be spun as a positive as well, though, because the presence of Brown means he will draw primary attention both in the red zone and as a deep threat, likely leaving Goedert to contend one-on-one with safeties and linebackers he can abuse.
There’s no question that the offense is run first, and Brown and Smith will be drains on Goedert’s target share. But Goedert has proven himself efficient, capable of breaking off smash plays, and could see a spike in his touchdown production after only four last year. I wrote here about QB Jalen Hurts’ potential to make a leap. If that leap happens, expect him to take Goedert with him to a Top 5 finish.