Noah Fant Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season And Where Should We Draft Him in 2022

Noah Fant has been a frustrating player since entering the NFL three years ago, giving tastes and glimpses of a potentially dominant pass-catcher, only to largely underwhelm year after year. Now, the Broncos finally acquired an elite QB, but to Fant’s chagrin, he was shipped out as part of the package to acquire him. So what does the future hold for the talented tight end? Lets figure it out.

Fant is a former first round pick, so that alone should tell you about his upside. First round TEs are rare, so talent isn’t an issue. There were definitely obstacles to success in Denver, namely poor quarterback play and vicious competition for targets. It’s no surprise that Fant’s best games were often when Denver was missing big guns in the receiving corps. Second, this is the list of QBs who have thrown passes to Fant in his career: Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien and Teddy Bridgewater. That’s a whole lot of yuck.

But we cannot only blame the passers. Fant was not a great player in 2021, ranking just 46th per PFF, with that lagging grade largely due to obscenely poor blocking grades. While fantasy managers care little about a TE’s ability to block, NFL coaches do, and Pete Carroll will absolutely want a TE to block in his run-heavy attack. If you just use his 69.5 receiving grade, that checked in just 20th in the league, which is better but not the elite level you’re looking for if you need Fant to thrive with more bad QB play. He posted the 22nd-best TE DVOA per Football Outsiders, marking him as a pretty average-ish TE, not an elite, first-round player.

By more traditional measures, Fant also underwhelmed. He didn’t record a single 100-yard receiving game in 2021, surpassed 60 yards just three times, and managed four touchdowns. His production was scarily similar to his 2020 output, despite playing the majority of the season with an upgrade at QB (Teddy Bridgewater). In fact, Fant managed three fewer yards on the season despite catching six more passes.

The one thing Fant did offer was consistency. He caught four or more passes 10 times in 16 games, and hit the 40-yard mark seven times. Fant was essentially a brand name version of Evan Engram last season, and really for the past two seasons. That is a player type that could see an increase in value with the Seahawks, despite the QB situation remaining dire. Yes, the current options at QB in Seattle are Geno Smith and Drew Lock…again…but Fant is clearly the third-best receiving option with the Seahawks, and rumor has it Tyler Lockett might be shipped out. I’d expect a target jump, with Fant seeing upward of 100 targets for the first time in his career. Seattle could also opt to draft a QB with one of the picks they acquired from Denver, or sign a free agent like Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky or Marcus Mariota. Still, even with more targets and a slight QB upgrade, it is unlikely for Fant to hit the ceiling many of us envisioned when he was drafted. He has a chance to be a low-end TE1 with a big enough target share, but the Seahawks figure to struggle mightily to put points on the board. At best, he should be drafted at the back of drafts by managers who have punted the position, but he’s more likely a streamer who can excite us in smash matchups.