Darren Waller Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season, And Where Should We Draft Him in 2022?

Darren Waller was the consensus No. 2 tight end off the board in fantasy drafts last year, an easy third round pick in most drafts. Fantasy managers eagerly drafted him because he had the holy trinity of opportunity, talent, and domination at a position where high-end production is scarce. TE is a one-off position in most leagues, and there is very, very little separation or consistency once you get beyond the elites. So many of us drafted that security, and figured even if Waller couldn’t replicate his dynamite 2020 season, his floor made him worth the high draft capital.

Well, due to injuries, but also other on-field factors, Waller ended the season with fewer fantasy points than Tyler Conklin. So with the 2021 season now fully in the rear view, it’s time to get to the bottom of the season’s mysteries. What the hell happened to Darren Waller, and how should we treat him entering 2022?

First, it’s important to note that he only played in 11 games. He finished the year with 55 receptions, 655 yards and two touchdowns. Problem No. 1 is glaring; he only scored twice in 11 games, after finding the painted area nine times in 2020. Touchdowns are a fickle stat, and it’s important not to overreact to them by reaching when a player scores a bunch the previous year, or by downgrading them too harshly when TDs dry up. In Waller’s case, fantasy managers might punish him in average draft position (ADP) for their disappointment, which could be to us smarter folks’ advantage. Just going on a per game basis, Waller averaged five catches, 60.5 yards and 9.6 fantasy points in half-PPR leagues. That is sixth, and much closer to the floor you banked on when you picked him so high. Sprinkle in some positive touchdown regression, and you’re in business.

But anyone who has played long enough knows end of season numbers can be deceiving. Unlike other sports, football has a very short schedule, and streakiness is not something that’s easily overcome. When consistency is baked into your ADP, it affects the way the rest of your draft goes, because a fantasy manager who has spent on Waller now believes he or she can take greater risks from that point on because of Waller’s safety. In 2020 Waller produced 50 or more receiving yards nine times in 16 games. Twice he scored touchdowns in games where he was below the 50-yard mark. That’s 11 games in which Waller either gave you a significant advantage at the position, or at worst did not hurt you. He also was absurd during the home stretch of the regular season and fantasy playoffs, averaging 8.3 receptions and 130.8 yards a game from Weeks 12-17 while scoring four touchdowns. In 2021, Waller was more consistent than you may realize. He topped the 50-yard mark seven times in nine games. He failed to score a touchdown in any of the non-50-yard efforts, however, and only managed 100+ yards twice all year. You basically got all floor as a Waller manager this season, and when you consider the games he missed, plus the elevated ADP/auction money spent, it was very important that he approach his ceiling more often.

So where were the boom games? In Week 1 he was targeted a ridiculous 19 times, turning them into 10 catches, 105 yards and a touchdown. Life was good, and you were enthralled with your brilliant third round pick. It might feel like the emergence of WR Hunter Renfrow stole Waller’s thunder, but that’s not really the case. In 2020 Waller averaged 9.4 targets per game, and in 2021 that only dipped to 8.4. It also wasn’t a drop in target quality; both seasons featured Derek Carr throwing him the ball, and his average depth of target (ADOT) increased by two full yards. Nope, 2021 doesn’t seem to have been Carr’s fault, Renfrow’s fault, or even the offense as a whole. The Raiders attempted the seventh-most passes in the NFL.

Unfortunately, Waller seems to just have been a better player in 2020. He posted a -10 defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR), good for just 37th in the league, and a -8.8% TE DVOA, 35th-best per FootballOutsiders. Compare that to 2020, when Waller was third in the NFL in DYAR (190) and had an 11.4% DVOA, and he seemed like a different player. He also posted 1,270 Effective Yards in 2020, second-most behind only Travis Kelce. Injuries likely did not help Waller this season, but he was not the same player. That’s also backed up by PFF, which graded Waller as just the 17th-best TE in football in 2020, giving him an overall grade of 69.7. For context, the highest-rated TE was Mark Andrews, whose overall grade was 91.5. Now, I have to give the entire picture here, and Waller’s grade suffers from his abysmal 45.1 run blocking grade, which fantasy managers couldn’t care less about. Waller was given a 73.9 receiving grade, which makes him the last man in the Top 10. That’s more like it, but it’s still not the guy you drafted in the third round.

So going into next year, should we treat Waller just as we did in 2021 and chalk up his down season to injuries and bad TD luck? I say no. The third round was too rich for my blood last season, and it will be again when Mark Andrews occupies that slot instead of Waller. He showed a drop-off, and while Waller remains a secure TE1, he will be turning 30 this season and it’s very likely we have seen his apex and are on the descent. If his ADP drops to where Mark Andrews (54th overall) and T.J. Hockenson (65th) lived last draft season, that’s the sweet spot. Remember the target share, remember the TD output that he is capable of, and remember that even if he repeats 2020, as long as he stays relatively healthy it’s still better than a lot of other managers will be at the position.