Christian Kirk Has A New Deal, But He's The Same Fantasy Asset
Christian Kirk has been a frustrating player since entering the league. At various times Kirk has either been saddled with bad QB play, buried behind higher-profile options at the position, or both. He has never caught 80 passes, nor has he reached 1,000 yards in any of his four NFL seasons. And yet, he was just given a four-year contract worth up to $84 million from the Jaguars, presumably to be their leading man. Are the Jaguars insane? And how should we treat Kirk around draft season?
Kirk has never had a chance to be a true WR1 for the Cardinals. He began his career playing second fiddle to Larry Fitzgerald, and transitioned to being one of multiple second fiddles to DeAndre Hopkins. Where Kirk shines is efficiency; last season was the best of his career, finishing with 982 yards and five touchdowns on a career-best 77 receptions. He averaged 12.8 yards per catch, the third time in four seasons that figure was above 12 yards, and his 9.5 yards per target were the most in his career. These are solid numbers, but none of this points to a locked-in WR1, which is how he’s being paid. So we have to look to the advanced stats to see if the Jaguars are seeing something we aren’t. And that search is…underwhelming.
PFF gave Kirk an overall grade of 72.1, 42nd-best in the NFL. His season graded better than the rest of Jacksonville’s current receiving corps, which includes Marvin Jones Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr. and Laquon Treadwell, but that is nothing to write home about. Football Outsiders was more optimistic, with his 23% DVOA ranking inside the NFL’s Top 10, as did his Defensive Yards Above Replacement (DYAR).
Kirk also ran three quarters of his routes out of the slot, making him a helpful complement to this crop of pass-catchers that belong on the outside. This is a lot of money to pay for a slot receiver, but Kirk isn’t the typical slot receiver that many think of. While most slot guys are pegged as short-yardage, sure handed first down demons, Kirk can do that and more. Five of his 17 career touchdowns came from 50 yards out or further, and while none of those came last season, three of his five scores in 2021 came from longer than 20 yards. He’s a successful zone beater – 80.1% Success Rate vs. zone coverage – which could be massively important to developing QB Trevor Lawrence, and he has the potential to burn defenses for long scores.
The fit in Jacksonville is obvious, especially if the Jags decide to utilize Shenault Jr. in a non-traditional, Deebo Samuel-esque role which would allow for Kirk to operate a lot more from the slot where he’s best. The money he’s being paid for this role seems excessive, but that’s not why anyone is here. We care about his fantasy value, and I don’t think it’s changed much regardless of the big bag he just got. Kirk might see more usage, but it isn’t guaranteed. He’s freed from Hopkins’ high target rate, but in Jacksonville there are multiple quality receivers to spread the ball to, plus a RB in Travis Etienne who cost a first round pick. Slot receivers tend to have middling touchdown opportunity, and Kirk has never scored more than six in a season. He was the No. 74 receiver off the board in 2021; I think the contract might build hype for him, and it could lead to him being overdrafted. Without a huge leap in Year 2 from Trevor Lawrence, and a drastic increase in targets, his output will probably be in line with 2021, making him a streaming option at best. Unfortunately, this isn’t too exciting.