Saquon Barkley Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season and Where Should We Draft Him in 2022?

Saquon Barkley was a first round pick in 2021, and for the second straight season he proved to be a colossal bust. While I usually do not rag on players whose season was done in by injury, like Barkley’s was in 2020, injuries were not the only reason Barkley was a letdown.

Barkley did play in 13 games, finishing the campaign with 593 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He managed just 856 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns, finished with just 3.7 yards per carry, and his yards per reception fell to 6.4. So after two years of disappointment and injury, is Barkley done as an elite RB1 option?

It’s important to note that Barkley was absolutely hampered by one of the NFL’s worst offenses. Big Blue posted a -41.7% Offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, a historically bad mark. The offensive line posted the second-worst Adjusted Line Yards (3.74 per rush) in the NFL, with only the Texans playing worse, and the league’s fifth-worst Stuffed Rate (19%). His QB, Daniel Jones, posted a subpar -10.6% QB DVOA, leading an anemic passing attack that amassed the second-fewest passing yards (3,196), the third-fewest passing TDs (15) and the second-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.1). Even for a supreme talent like Barkley, that is a great deal to overcome. But can we blame these circumstances entirely for his weak season? 

Individually, Barkley did not look like the player who won offensive rookie of the year in 2018. Per PFF, Barkley was graded as the 58th-best RB, checking in behind the likes of David Johnson, Jeremy McNichols and Samaje Perine. He was graded 12 spots behind Devontae Booker, his backfield mate signed as veteran depth and who ended up averaging 4.1 yards per carry behind the same shoddy offensive line. He rushed for 100 or more yards just once all season, and rushed for fewer than 50 yards six times. If we up the requirement to 70 or more yards on the ground, Barkley hit the mark just once, which was his 102-yard effort against the Bears in Week 17. He earned a pedestrian 65.7 rushing grade, and a shockingly poor 49.2 receiving grade. His poor pass blocking (34.3) led to him ceding some passing downs to Booker, which took a bite out of his receiving opportunity. He posted a -17.5% RB DVOA, 45th-best in football, and 449 Effective yards, 144 fewer yards than he actually put up. The most alarming thing about Barkley’s season, however, was the utter absence of chunk plays. His longest run was fewer than 15 yards in eight of his 13 games, and the longest run he had of the year went for 41 yards.

Another interesting tidbit about Barkley’s 2021 season was his snap rate. Prior to getting hurt in Week 5, Barkley had been on the field for 84-86% of snaps for three straight weeks. Post injury, Barkley only saw a snap rate of 75% or better twice, and finished the year without topping 60% for the final five weeks. Despite those decreased snap rates, however, Barkley was averaging 15.6 carries and 3.4 targets per game. So despite his lackluster production, the Giants still saw fit to utilize him heavily when he was on the field. That opportunity is likely to remain in 2022, as the G-Men don’t have boatloads of cap space to spend at the RB position. They also have good draft capital to apply toward improving the offensive line, and a new coaching staff that should be able to make more use of their high-end WR talent.

Ultimately, it’ll be tough to trust Barkley next draft season with a first round pick, or major RB1 money in an auction format. While he flashed, rarely, the game breaking ability of his rookie season he spent most of 2021 getting taken down behind the line of scrimmage or making people miss only to get taken down for short gains. The Giants have a long way to go before this offense is fully rebuilt. On the flip side, he should be among the league-leaders at the position in opportunity, and his touchdown numbers are due to improve based on positive regression alone. Barkley’s weak production and multiple injuries will make him one of the riskier RB options in 2022, because even with a price drop he will still likely be a second or third round player, but opportunity is king and he will probably turn out to be a value at a new cost. I wouldn’t be afraid of rostering Saquon, but I’ll be sure not to reach for him.