Russell Wilson Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season And Where Should We Draft Him in 2022?

Russell Wilson was the 50th overall pick during 2021 draft season, and the seventh QB off the board. He did not reward that faith, and while he did deal with an injury to his throwing hand, he only missed three games. Wilson has been a polarizing QB in fantasy for years, but was 2021 a signal to permanently change the way we view one of football’s best real-life passers? 

He finished last season with 3,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. He averaged 222.4 yards per game, the third-worst mark of his career, and a career-worst 54.7 QBR. Of course, fantasy managers couldn’t care less about a player’s QBR, but it is a lens through which to view his actual performance. Wilson threw the ball fewer than 30 times per game despite having two elite receivers, and the team losing RB Chris Carson early and Rashaad Penny not emerging until the end of the year.

There are signs, however, that Wilson wasn’t all that different than he’s been in previous seasons. He posted a 6.2% touchdown rate, down from the year before but still a strong number, and an area where he’s been consistently above-average. His interception rate (1.5%) was at 2% or lower for the fifth time in six seasons, so he continues to not harm his production with turnovers. His air yards per attempt (8.4), was the fourth highest in the league, and one of the players ahead of him was Trey Lance, who started just two games, and his 12 yards per completion remained remarkably consistent. Wilson was also inside the Top 12 of QB DVOA (7.5%) per Football Outsiders.

The true cause for alarm for Wilson’s future fantasy value is on the ground. While he continues to be one of the NFL’s most dangerous QBs with his legs, Wilson has treated rushing like a true last resort as he’s aged. He was down to 3.1 attempts per game in 2021, averaging a career-low 13.1 yards on the ground and only managing two rushing touchdowns. Rushing touchdowns have always been a maddening stat for Wilson – he’s scored three or fewer in each of the last seven seasons and only scored more than three twice in his career – but if his attempts are going to drop to this level, it’s not a quality we can count on moving forward. 

The move to Denver, fantasy-wise, was one of the best possible outcomes. Wilson is leaving two stud receivers — D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett — whom he had incredible chemistry with. Those are tough weapons to leave behind, but in Denver he links up with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Wilson also has better secondary pass catchers in Tim Patrick and TE Albert Okwuegbunam than he’s had in Seattle in a long time. Finally, the hefty price that Denver paid for him (five draft picks, three players) should ensure that Wilson can don his chef’s hat and cook to his heart’s content. It’ll be strange seeing him in a different uniform, but i believe his ceiling is actually higher now than it would’ve been if he stayed put, because the Seahawks have demonstrated that they aren’t listening to us, and don’t want Wilson running the show. With that said, I don’t think Wilson’s stock rises a ton, because of the aforementioned lack of rushing upside. Whereas in Seattle I probably would’ve viewed him as a super high-end streamer and low-end weekly play, I’d probably lock him into a lower-end weekly play as a Bronco.