On The Move: Breaking Down Deshaun Watson On The Browns

Deshaun Watson is a Cleveland Brown, and his addition is going to have major ramifications for several players, as well as the AFC North as a whole. But there’s time later to discuss what his arrival means for everyone in his orbit…we’re here to figure out what it means for Watson himself.

It’s easy to forget about guys when they miss an entire season, but the last time we saw Watson on the field he was absolutely amazing. In 2020 Watson was averaging about 23 points per game in four-point passing TD formats, nearly identical to Josh Allen who finished as the clear QB1 on the season. And, mind you, that was Watson’s first season without superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins, so he put up 4,823 yards and a career-best 33 passing touchdowns by turning Will Fuller into a supernova. In his first year minus one of the best pass-catchers in football, Watson set career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion rate (70.2%), and yards per attempt (8.9). Oh, and he did it playing behind the NFL’s worst offensive line, which posted a league-worst 9.5% Adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders.

The thing is, Watson’s in Cleveland now, and the Browns have found success by being one of the most dominant rushing offenses in football. Cleveland led the NFL with an 11.4% rushing DVOA, and finished seventh the prior season. They have one of the absolute best RBs in football in Nick Chubb, and despite trading for a bona fide WR1 in Amari Cooper, they traded away Odell Beckham during the season and released Jarvis Landry. The pass-catching cupboard is currently pretty thin; that’s never been a big issue for Watson, but it also means this might not be the pass-happy envirornment he had in Houston where he did as he pleased. Of course, when you have a QB as incredible as Watson, the offense changes to suit him to a degree. However, this could become a Russell Wilson in Seattle situation where he explodes when left to cook, but is reined in at times by success on the ground. This scenario isn’t one I expect to play out, but it shouldn’t be brushed aside without a thought.

The other thing to consider is this – if Watson does see a reduction in his pass attempts, due to the efficiency of Chubb and Co. in the running game, can Watson keep pace with the upper level rushing QBs? We know Watson is a gifted rusher at the position, but it is not a featured part of his game like it is for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. These are his peers atop the division, and they may still have an edge on him with their safe rushing floors. Watson’s career-best rushing yardage was 551, set in 2019, and he’s logged at least 80 rushing attempts in each of his last three seasons. For comparison, Allen was over 100 in his last three seasons, Jackson lives in the 150-170 attempt range, and Murray logged 88 in 14 games. If Watson is going to keep pace in that aspect, it’ll have to be rushing TD volume, which isn’t something to bank on.

At the end of the day, Watson is a superstar player and he’s going to put up big numbers. He’s not going to produce elite rushing numbers for the position, but he’ll still produce value on the ground that will be noticeable, while also putting up passing numbers that could be mistaken for an elite pure pocket passer. We have no way to know at this point if there will be any suspension due to his off the field chaos, but if he was slated to play all 17 games, he’d have to be considered a Top 5 option. This likely means he’ll be drafted in a range that I tend to be targeting other positions. Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert were all drafted between picks 37-59 in 2021, and I’d expect Watson to be snapped up in the earlier portion of this range. As much as I’ve gushed about him, I’d still prefer to target RBs and WRs in this part of the draft and probably won’t have many shares of Watson in 2022. But you definitely won’t hear me say he is unworthy of that standing at the position.