On The Move: Breaking Down Tyreek Hill on the Dolphins

In the latest absolute bombshell that will further shift the balance of power of the NFL, Tyreek Hill is now a Miami Dolphin. There will be time discuss the outsize impact this will have on the Chiefs and their skill players, as well as the Dolphins, but this is about Hill himself, one of the best WRs in football.

We cannot evaluate Hill without QB Patrick Mahomes meaningfully, because he’s been with Mahomes – and the Chiefs in Andy Reid’s offense – for his entire career. It would be foolish to assume that the elite QB and world-class offensive mind are completely responsible for Hill’s massive success. Hill has gone over 1,200 receiving yards in three of the last four seasons, missing the mark in the only season with fewer than 15 games played, was graded as PFF’s No. 6 receiver last season, and ranked seventh in the NFL in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) per Football Outsiders. Hill is an outstanding player in his own right, but he’s no doubt boosted by having the NFL’s best QB throwing him the ball, as well as sharing an offense with one of the greatest TEs ever in Travis Kelce. That’s all about to change.

Hill averaged 10.3 yards per target for four seasons before seeing that number fall to 7.8 in 2021. His new QB, Tua Tagovailoa, averaged just 6.8 yards per target in 2021, and that was an improvement from his rookie season. Kansas City threw the second most pass attempts in football last year, and while Miami checked in eighth, that was largely due to a total absence of competence in the running game. Additionally, loads of those pass attempts were short, RPO throws that help Tagovailoa’s effectiveness, but do not capitalize on Hill’s incredible talent down the field. In fact, the Dolphins spent a Top 10 pick in last year’s draft on Jaylen Waddle, a player with very similar tools to Hill, who caught 104 passes for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. Those are awesome rookie numbers, but Waddle had an average depth of target (ADOT) of 7.1 yards. Hill’s was at 10.4 last season, and it was, by far, a career-low. Unless the new staff feels dramatically different about Tagovailoa’s capabilities than the Brian Flores regime did, Hill’s quality of targets are bout to be very different than he’s used to.

Speaking of QBs, no matter where you stand on Tua Tagovailoa, there’s no debating that he’s a steep downgrade from Mahomes. Just how big is up for debate, but PFF graded Mahomes 11th last season and Tua 25th. Mahomes posted Football Outsiders’ fourth-best QB DVOA (18.6%), while Tua checked in at 18th (-0.7%). And in case the ADOT and yards per target numbers didn’t illustrate the gap in QB quality, Mahomes’ offense averaged 5.9 yards per play, the fifth-best mark in the NFL, while Miami checked in at 4.8 yards per play. That number was 29th in the league, one-tenth of a yard better than the Giants and Texans, and two-tenths better than the Panthers.

Of course, Hill is expected to boost these numbers significantly for the Dolphins, who likely believe that Tagovailoa is a talented player on whom they’re banking on improvement from. The thing is, in Kansas City, the Chiefs offense was a fast car for which Tyreek Hill was NOS. In Miami, Hill is going to have the be the engine of an inferior model. Hill will still be treated like the elite fantasy receiver he is, but I do believe his fantasy ceiling will come down some, and he’s out of the running for overall WR1 which he would’ve been in had he remained with the Chiefs.