On The Move: Breaking Down Davante Adams On The Raiders
Davante Adams’ trade to the Las Vegas Raiders was a shocking offseason development that could cause seismic shifts in value for players on both the Raiders and the Packers, but we’ll save those ripples for the team previews that will be written in the summer. For now, let’s focus specifically on what this trade means for Adams, and whether he is still a consensus Top 3 receiver.
Adams has not only been the best WR in football for years, he’s long been one of fantasy’s most consistent superstars. Adams has scored double-digit touchdowns in five of the last six seasons, caught more than 110 passes three times, and surpassed 1,300 yards three times. Last season, Adams set career highs in receptions (123) and yards (1,553) and tied a career-high yards per target (9.2). He as PFF’s No. 2 ranked wide receiver, coming in just behind Cooper Kupp, and he posted a Top 15 DVOA (17.5%) according to Football Outsiders. Of course, it would be foolish to not acknowledge that the vast majority of this Hall of Fame level production has come with Aaron Rodgers, one of the greatest passes of all time, as his QB for this entire run. With that said, you can easily argue that this partnership is a true 50/50 arrangement, with Adams bringing just as much value to the table.
Per Reception Perception, Adams was essentially uncoverable in 2021. He destroyed all kinds of coverage, and even though he was double-teamed more than any receiver in football, he was successful against those double-teams 81% of the time. In fact, he did better against double-teams than he did vs. straight man coverage (79.6% success rate). So we’ve sufficiently gushed about what a talent Adams is, and established that while it can’t hurt to have Rodgers at QB, he’s certainly not some fraudulent product of elite QB play. But role also matters, and his role will inevitably change on a new team.
Green Bay knew what they had in Adams, and in the game plan treated him accordingly. Adams drew 28% of the Packers targets in each of the past two seasons, and now joins a Raiders offense with legitimate weapons in the mix. TE Darren Waller is an elite pass-catching option at the position, and WR Hunter Renfrow emerged as a supreme route runner and third down safety blanket for Derek Carr. Of course, a receiver as talented as Adams is going to soak up targets no matter where he lands, but Las Vegas will have other players open, and a new offense with Josh McDaniels taking over. That last bit is most encouraging; McDaniels is bringing his own plans to this team, and he went out and spent serious capital – and draft capital – to bring in a monster WR1. Maybe Adams won’t see quite the same target volume, but he will be close to it, and he will remain among the elite, top tier of WR1s.
It’s become apparent that high-profile WR signings by and large will not work out, and big-name receivers switching teams in general will often produce subpar results compared to expectations. Expect Adams to take a sledgehammer to this trope. He is a dominant force, and he’ll continue to be even without Aaron Rodgers. One simply cannot get open at the rate he does and not produce monstrous numbers.