Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Preview 2021
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Tyreek Hill, WR (ADP: 9): Hill has a strong case to be the first WR off the board in any format, even with Davante Adams getting Aaron Rodgers back in Green Bay. While Hill is never going to lead the league in receptions due to how deep down the field he typically does his damage, and because of the talent surrounding him in this offense, no WR is more lethal every single time he touches the ball. Hill caught 87 passes last year and racked up more than 1,200 receiving yards while scoring 17 total touchdowns (15 receiving). One of the fastest players in football, he’s earned a reputation as someone who absolutely murders defenses deep, and that can lead to a misconception that he’s liable to dud games; Hill didn’t have a single game last year with fewer than three receptions, and he was over 50 yards 13 times. Hill actually only topped 100 yards three times in 2020, but he made up for that with his massive TD total, spreading those 15 receiving TDs across 11 games. Simply put, Hill is a dominant receiver, in a high-octane offense, with a QB who may one day be considered the best of all time. Draft him comfortably in Round 1.
Travis Kelce, TE (ADP: 10): Kelce is going one pick after his teammate, and he’s reached a supremely interesting point in his career. He’s ascended to prime Rob Gronkowski status, where he’s the obvious top choice at the position, and he will be a massive asset since you only need one TE in most leagues. He had his best season yet in 2020, catching 105 passes, 1,416 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. He’s posted five straight seasons of 1,000+ yards, and he has caught more than 80 passes in all of them. Numbers-wise, he is obviously deserving of this ADP.
But…what if there’s drop off? Kelce has been returning value for years as a highly-drafted TE, but even last season he wasn’t typically a Round 1 guy. To take Kelce, you are passing on elite RBs and WRs, a position where you need to start at least two each week. And while Kelce delivers like those players do, drafting him here means you’re going to be deficient in at least one of those spots. Kelce is 31 years old – for reference, Gronkowski right now is 32 – and he plays one of the most physically punishing positions in football. Gronk started dealing with injuries as early as Year 3, but began to fall off in earnest in 2016, about seven seasons into his career. Kelce is entering Year 9, and has been blessedly fortunate in terms of health/missed games. I do believe Kelce’s talent warrants this ADP, but I am personally not taking him at this ADP. Maybe I’ll regret it, but he’s reached a point where if he doesn’t have a great season it becomes catastrophic for your roster.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (ADP: 17): Mahomes coming in at No. 17 makes the Chiefs feel like the Kentucky Wildcats on draft day. This offense is loaded, and Mahomes is the engine powering the machine. There’s not much that needs to be said; we all know he’s the best QB in football, with 50+ TDs and 5,000 yards as a ceiling. Beyond that, he’s an above-average rusher at the position, averaging almost four rushes per game for his career. He’s never managed more than two rushing TDs in a season, which strikes me as an anomaly, and means he’s due for a spike in that regard. The ADP is not for everyone. Of course, it makes sense to keep drafting RBs and WRs at this point, or maybe even a high-end TE, but Mahomes is unlikely to disappoint you regardless of ADP. I’m probably waiting on QB myself, but you’re not a fool to take the leap.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB (ADP: 25): Mahomes, Kelce and Hill are the Chiefs’ Holy Trinity, but Edwards-Helaire cannot be scoffed at. He didn’t deliver on our highest hopes for him last season after Damien Williams gifted him the full workload, but CEH’s season was underrated, as I covered here. CEH didn’t score touchdowns last season. He managed just five scores, and that’s why fantasy owners were pissed. But he still put up more than 1,100 yards from scrimmage in 13 games, chewed up 4.4 yards per carry, and remain involved in the passing game. He had blowup games (138 yards, 1 touchdown vs. Houston, 161 yards vs. Buffalo), and also was consistent whenever he received sufficient work. Kansas City made no significant moves this offseason to bolster the backfield, and they let go of Damien Williams, signing only oft-injured Jerick McKinnon. This backfield belongs to him, and some positive touchdown luck will drastically change everyone’s view of him, even if his usage and yardage stay exactly the same. His ADP is on the rise since I last wrote about him, so this is clearly not an original take, but he is still a potential value even as the RB15 off the board.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Mecole Hardman, WR (ADP: 147): Mecole Hardman, my muse. This will be Year 3 of me predicting Hardman will return value on a late ADP. I did it here, in last season’s preview and here too. Harman saw 21 more targets in 2020 than he did as a rookie, but only turned it into 22 more yards as his yards per reception fell from 20.7 to 13.7. He managed only 2.6 receptions per game, and 35 yards per game, making him wholly untrustworthy as a fantasy option. I banked on Kansas City allowing him to supplant Sammy Watkins, and it didn’t happen. Well, Watkins is gone now, and that No. 2 receiver role – deceptive, because the real WR1 is Kelce, and the real WR1A is Hill – should belong to Hardman. That doesn’t mean he suddenly becomes a target hound by any means, but Hardman remains an electric playmaker who will absolutely do damage with enough opportunity. In games where Hardman drew four or more targets, he was useful:
· Week 3 @ Baltimore: six targets, four receptions, 81 yards, one touchdown
· Week 4 vs. New England: four targets, four receptions, 27 yards, one touchdown
· Week 8 vs. Jets: nine targets, seven receptions, 96 yards, one touchdown
· Week 9 vs. Carolina: four targets, three receptions, 48 yards
· Week 12 @ Tampa Bay: five targets, three receptions, 23 yards
· Week 15 @ New Orleans: nine targets, three receptions, 22 yards, one touchdown
· Week 16 vs. Atlanta: six targets, three receptions, 24 yards
So as you can see, it wasn’t always perfect, but of the seven games Hardman saw at least four targets (not a lot!) he scored a touchdown in four of them. This season, Hardman should see those four targets as a weekly baseline without Watkins present to steal target share, and I’d expect Hardman to become, at worst, a strong FLEX option in any format. He still possesses as much big play potential as any receiver in the league, and that’s including his teammate Hill.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Darrel Williams, RB (ADP: 245): Williams is a fairly ordinary RB in an extraordinary offense. Should CEH get hurt, Williams is the clear handcuff, but I don’t think he’s worth drafting. If the Chiefs lost CEH, Williams would likely cede passing down work to Jerick McKinnon, and might even have to surrender whole drives.
DeMarcus Robinson, WR (ADP: 273): Robinson might be the fly in my Mecole Hardman ointment, as he could potentially slide into Watkins’ role and keep Hardman relegated to random long-ass TDs. Robinson has been productive in real life for KC, but far from fantasy relevant, typically delivering around 450ish yards and 3-4 touchdowns. His play style is more similar to Watkins than Hardman’s is, but he’s such an inferior playmaker that it’s difficult to envision Andy Reid continuing to underutilize Hardman’s game-breaking ability.
Byron Pringle, WR (ADP: 291): Pringle has never been fantasy relevant, but he’s flashed at times in this offense with Mahomes. Pringle might shine given a chance, but there are way too many mouths to feed here to consider actually drafting him.
Jerick McKinnon, RB (ADP: 342): After missing two whole seasons to various injuries, McKinnon actually popped for a while last year for the 49ers. Unfortunately, McKinnon couldn’t last long, and while that stinks for him, it’s great for CEH, who doesn’t have to worry about him as a legitimate threat. I am rooting for McKinnon, but he can be safely ignored on draft day.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 182)
The Chiefs D/ST is currently Top 10, and I’m not sure why. They were one of the worst red zone defenses in football last year, they score a ton, leading to high-scoring, pass-heavy game scripts, and star DE Frank Clark is having legal issues. This is a streaming D, not one you draft for season-long use.