Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview 2021
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
James Robinson, RB (ADP: 48): Robinson is somewhat surprisingly still the first player off the board from the Jaguars, despite the addition of rookie RB Travis Etienne in the first round. Robinson certainly earned the faith of fantasy owners last season, racking up more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage and scoring 10 touchdowns as an absolute workhorse for the league’s worst team, and doing so as an undrafted free agent. The thing about that production, however, is that it was largely a product of his volume and complete stranglehold on opportunity. No matter how much you believe in Robinson’s talent – and no team believed in it enough to even draft him – the draft capital spent on Etienne means he will have a meaningful role in this offense, and his connection to QB Trevor Lawrence further cements that. The best case scenario is early down work + goal line carries, which isn’t enough for me to pull the trigger inside the Top 50. While I like the player, I will not have any shares of him at this ADP.
**Travis Etienne, RB (ADP: 68): Etienne is far more interesting, although I suspect by draft day this ADP will have risen quite a bit. He’s well known to be an excellent receiver out of the backfield, and he’s still paired with Lawrence, with whom he’s torn up the ACC for years. But Etienne has the skill set to be a three-down back, he’s surpassed 200 carries twice at Clemson, and his first-round draft price means he’s going to be the full-time guy at some point. Robinson may open the year as the token starter, and he’s plenty good enough to have a role, but as the year goes on Etienne’s receiving chops and big play ability are going to force his role to expand. Why take Robinson 20 picks earlier when all the upside is with the high-priced rookie?
DJ Chark, WR (ADP: 83): Chark blew up in 2019 with 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns, only to take a big step back last season, dropping to 706 yards and five touchdowns in only 13 games. One may argue that the mediocre QB play and even worse offensive line play are to blame for Chark’s fall, but he disappointed as a rookie as well. It’s possible that Chark’s big season is actually the anomaly, and he’s also got multiple quality receivers to contend with on his own team. I do like the talent of Chark, but this ADP is too rich for my blood. There are other players in this range with less obstacles, and other Jaguars with similar upside later in the draft.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Laviska Shenault Jr., WR (ADP: 123): Shenault was impressive as a rookie, emerging as the Jags’ most reliable receiver last year with 58 receptions, 600 yards and five touchdowns. Shenault also toted the rock 18 times as a rusher, an aspect of his game that could become more dangerous with Lawrence and Etienne opening things up. Shenault graded very similarly to Chark last season per PFF, and while neither of them were all that special, you can scoop up Shenault 40 picks later. Easy call in my opinion.
**Trevor Lawrence, QB (ADP: 131): Lawrence’s ADP is a bit puzzling, as he’s been the prize that multiple teams tanked for all season last year, and he’s set up with an impressive group of skill players. Many consider him the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, and it’s easy to see why. Lawrence has thrown for 3,000+ yards for three straight seasons at Clemson, tossed 90 touchdown passes against 17 picks, and played in two of the last three National Championship games. He’s also going to offer a great deal as a rusher; at Clemson he rushed 68 times for 203 yards and eight touchdowns last year, and he topped 100 rushing attempts as a sophomore with nine rushing TDs. Lawrence is a complete stud, and it’s hard to envision him not finishing as a QB1, so his current ADP as the QB15 is clear value.
**Marvin Jones, WR (ADP: 145): Jones is typically overlooked around draft day, largely because his production, while impressive, is often inconsistent. But there’s a very strong chance he ends 2021 as the Jaguars’ best receiver. Last season he finished with 978 yards and nine touchdowns while spending much of the year drawing the best DB opposing defenses had to offer. He’s scored nine touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, and in three of the past four years. He is older now, and where he was once the downfield deep ball monster, he’s become more of a possession/red zone weapon in Detroit, and that should help Lawrence in a big way. Jones is 31 now, so maybe it’s the beginning of the end, but he graded higher than Shenault or Chark last season, has proven TD consistency, and doesn’t cost much at all. There’s very good value here.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Carlos Hyde, RB (ADP: 334): Hyde looked like a very strong handcuff before the draft, and is now irrelevant. Should Robinson go down, Hyde becomes a clear handcuff for Etienne, but he’d need both to be injured for relevant playing time.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 375)
Don’t draft them.