Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Jonathan Taylor, RB (ADP: 8): Taylor was a beast down the stretch last season when the Colts finally just handed him the keys to the backfield, and he finished the year with close to 1,500 yards from scrimmage, 12 touchdowns, and now a first-round ADP. Taylor is in a situation where he could feasibly finish the year as the RB1 in fantasy, but that upside is contingent on Carson Wentz returning reasonably soon from his foot injury, or the Colts getting an established QB in the mix ASAP.

**Nyheim Hines, RB (ADP: 122): Hines is an undervalued asset, and it’s because Taylor has a chance to be so dominant. While Taylor obviously places a cap on Hines’ playing time, Hines has a valuable skill set, especially in this offense. Hines finished last season as PFF’s No. 6 RB, and that grade came on the strength of his league-leading 91.7 receiving grade. Hines was by far the best pass-catching back in football, finishing with 63 receptions (second time in three years with that total), 482 yards and four touchdowns. Hines is probably too small to ever earn a full three-down workload, but he is explosive enough to do damage with limited chances, and in half-PPR and full-PPR leagues the majority of his touches come with extra points. If Taylor were to get hurt, Hines would likely be the primary RB, a la Austin Ekeler, and as it stands he may be the team’s best pass-catcher regardless of position. I don’t know exactly how it’ll look, but Hines is a good bet to outperform this ADP.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Michael Pittman Jr., WR (ADP: 123): Pittman, a 2020 second-round pick, disappointed last season turning in a 40-catch, 503-yard season with only one touchdown despite a battered and aging receiving corps. He’s currently the first Colts receiver off the board, but with a new QB coming in the entire receiving corps is a question mark. He certainly could emerge as a fantasy relevant receiver option, but we’re projecting a No. 1 role on him that he has not earned yet. There are quality WRs and QBs going in this range, so I won’t be burning a pick here on him., and if Wentz misses significant time I wouldn’t expect Pittman to be fantasy relevant.

T.Y. Hilton, WR (ADP: 142): Hilton, 31, surely disappointed last season as well. Still, he flashed at times with explosions of his prime, and finished the year with 762 yards and five touchdowns. It wasn’t what he was drafted for, and he’s been below 1,000 yards for three of the last four seasons. Hilton is no longer a high-end option, and he won’t be moving forward, but it is definitely possible for him to be a value on this ADP. At nearly 17 picks after Pittman, I do think Hilton enters the year as Indianapolis’ WR1. You don’t have to target him here, but he’s a fine pick. He did finish as a Top 32 WR per PFF, while Pittman barely made it inside the Top 100. Hilton’s value dips further without Wentz, but someone will catch passes to an extent here. If Wentz is seriously hurt, Hilton is likely the only Colts WR I would consider rostering.

Marlon Mack, RB (ADP: 154): The last time we saw Mack in a meaningful role was in 2019, when he put up more than 1,000 yards and scored eight touchdowns as a surprise fantasy RB1. Then the Colts drafted Taylor, and he tore his Achilles. He’s back now, but with no way to know if he’ll be himself again, and with him buried behind Taylor and Hines on the depth chart, this ADP is simply too high. There’s no path to a three-down role without multiple injuries, and even if he got it, we don’t know if he’s the same player. It’s sad to talk about him this way, but fantasy football can be cold.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Parris Campbell, WR (ADP: 266): We’ve waited on Campbell for two years, and he’s been bitten by injury both times. It’s hard to know if the injuries are sapping Campbell of the explosiveness he had in college, but the opportunity to thrive is there if he still has juice. Hilton’s role is secure, but Pittman didn’t step up, and no one else is a sure thing to be utilized. Campbell has a lot of Curtis Samuel in him, and at this ADP he’s basically free. He’s a flier I like in deep leagues.

**Mo Alie-Cox, TE (ADP: 278): Alie-Cox is a mountain of a man, and a guy I feel could be dominant for fantasy if the Colts commit to using him. I wrote about it here, but he averaged 12.7 yards per reception last season, more than 10 yards per target, and now won’t have Trey Burton stealing targets. The Colts have one of the most undefined receiving corps in the NFL, so it’s really wide open for any pass-catcher with playing time to take ownership of it; while Alie-Cox is unlikely to morph into George Kittle-type impact guy, there’s no reason he can’t pop for double-digit touchdowns with an occasional blowup game.

Carson Wentz, QB (ADP: 307): Wentz doesn’t have too many fans these days, and I get it, but I’m not in the business of taking fantasy football personally. I covered him in depth here, but the gist is this. Wentz has the guts to take chances and make big plays, he’s going from the league’s second-worst pass blocking line to the seventh-best, and he provides way more rushing production than many realize.

Wentz rushed more per game than Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott and averaged 23 yards per game on the ground with five touchdowns. While Wentz has been a bit overrated for a while, the drastic dip in his completion percentage and corresponding rise in INT rate could credibly be blamed on Philadelphia’s brutal O-line, as he’d never been below 60%  on completions, or above 2.3% on INTs in the four prior seasons.

Of course, Wentz’s foot injury destroys your ability to draft him. Even if he returns on the short end of his timeline, he’s no sure bet to be under center by Week 1. Also, if he has a foot injury but avoids surgery, he’s a lock to decrease his rushing efforts, and the Colts aren’t likely to risk having him take more punishment unless absolutely necessary. Where I once saw a bunch of value, I now see a prayer.

Zach Pascal, WR (ADP: 344): Pascal has as low a ceiling as you’ll find, but in deep leagues he’s shown the ability to maintain a role on this team, with nearly identical 2019 and 2020 campaigns. In a full-PPR league he could be an emergency option.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 134)

The Colts are the D/ST6, and that’s about right. They were in the Top 10 of Weighted DVOA last season, and among the Top 10 in Rush and Pass DVOA. Balanced across the board, they might not have massive scoring outings, but they should be consistently positive. They also get two games vs. the Texans, and two chances to maybe exploit a rookie behind a bad offensive line in Jacksonville.