Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Darren Waller, TE (ADP: 27): There was mild skepticism of Waller after he broke out in 2019, due to questions about his QB and the Raiders going in heavily in the draft and free agency to improve the wide receiver corps. He silenced it all, advancing from a breakout in 2019 to full fledged fantasy superstardom in 2020. Waller was the best non-Travis Kelce TE by a mile, finishing with 107 receptions, 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns. While his yardage wasn’t always the greatest, volume for Waller was incredibly consistent; he saw five or more targets in 15 of 16 games, and never saw fewer than four targets at any point. He scored at least one touchdown in eight of his 16 games, and also had massive blowup games. Waller went for more than 100 yards five times, scoring a touchdown in four of them, and even got the Jets for 200 yards on 13 receptions. Simply put, Waller is an awesome asset, and someone I’d love to have at this ADP even more than taking Kelce in Round 1, because I’d prefer Waller + the elite RB/WR.

Josh Jacobs, RB (ADP: 28): Jacobs, going one pick after his teammate, is far less certain. His talent is not in question, but his usage could be. While his overall stats looked solid in 2020 – 273 carries, 1,065 yards, 12 touchdowns in 15 games – the Raiders spent not insignificant money to bring in veteran RB Kenyan Drake, likely to handle the passing game work we’d hoped Jacobs would earn in his second season. Jacobs was a good receiver out of the backfield at Alabama, but the Raiders clearly don’t trust him there, as he’s scored zero receiving touchdowns in two seasons, and failed to catch even 35 passes. His rushing talent alone could make this a perfectly fine pick, and despite Drake’s presence, Jacobs should lead the team in rushing attempts by a good margin. But as I wrote here, Drake may be in Vegas to spell Jacobs for entire drives, and he has had similar success as a short yardage rusher in Arizona. While I don’t doubt Jacobs’ ability to perform to this ADP, I believe he needs greater passing volume to exceed it, and that won’t come while Drake is in the backfield.

Kenyan Drake, RB (ADP: 81): Drake entered 2020 with similarly high expectations to Jacobs, and while he was a quality, competent RB for fantasy purposes, he didn’t deliver on the high hopes. He finished with 10 touchdowns, which we obviously loved, but his 955 rushing yards was underwhelming after he averaged 1.2 yards more per attempt in 2019. Drake’s receiving volume was also lower than we’d all hoped, as Chase Edmonds proved elite in that regard and ate into that part of his game. Drake became lowkey touchdown-dependent, mustering fewer than 50 rushing yards seven times, but scoring at least one touchdown in three of them. Drake deserves some slack, because Arizona’s offensive line was among the league’s poorest, but the Raiders bizarrely shipped out a chunk of their own O-line this offseason leaving the unit in flux. He has potential to eat into Jacobs’ productivity, but at this ADP a lot has to go right for him to return value on it. I’m out.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Henry Ruggs III, WR (ADP: 135): Ruggs’ ADP and buzz are rising as more and more people begin to be tantalized by his ridiculous speed and are reminded of his draft stock. And I’m fine with it, as long as the hype doesn’t drive this ADP up too much more. He was a disappointment for fantasy by any measure, finishing 2020 with less than 500 yards and only scoring two touchdowns in an offense that was quietly one of the better scoring units in football. He was outplayed and targeted less than Nelson Agholor, an Eagles castoff (and they were dying for WRs). PFF wasn’t a fan of his work when he was on the field, grading him 123rd among all WRs, and fifth on his own team. And this was despite a surprisingly competent season out of Derek Carr, which I wrote about here. Fast doesn’t always equal good, as the Raiders franchise knows well. Ruggs could break out, and has a draft pedigree that says he should break out. But I don’t buy it.

**John Brown, WR (ADP: 171): Brown is going 36 picks later than Ruggs, and is absolutely the WR I’d want if I am choosing one from the Raiders. Health has always been Brown’s enemy, and will be to blame if he doesn’t finish this season as Las Vegas’ top producer from the position. Brown is the best receiver on the team, and produced at a high level – 1,060 yards, six touchdowns – in Buffalo in 2019, and was strong last year when he played (limited to nine games). Brown has a skill set very similar to Agholor’s, in that he is scary down the field, but he also has the chops to get open on intermediate routes, and making people miss when catching the ball near the line of scrimmage. While Ruggs relied on his speed to beat defenders deep, Brown is going to develop rapport with Carr all over the field and draw much more targets. If healthy, Brown is someone you’ll be able to start week-to-week and be confident you won’t get a doughnut. And he has all the single-game ceiling of Ruggs too.

Derek Carr, QB (ADP: 180): Carr isn’t a sexy pick, but QB26 off the board seems harsh. He’s topped 4,000 passing yards in three straight seasons, was eighth in the NFL in yards per attempt, squashing his check down reputation, and took care of the football (single-digit INTs for two consecutive seasons). Will Carr be a Top 5 QB? Absolutely not, because he doesn’t run enough for that, but a touchdown spike likely elevates him into QB1 status, which could absolutely happen. If you punt the position, Carr is not someone to shy away from, and returning value on this non-existent ADP is very easy.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Bryan Edwards, WR (ADP: 279): Edwards whiffed on a chance to establish himself last season, and now has to contend with Ruggs, Brown and others, while also dealing with Waller being the primary option, and Drake drawing targets out of the backfield. The size is there, and his hype from last summer shouldn’t be dismissed completely, but I am out on him on draft day unless there’s a big injury to Ruggs or Brown.

Hunter Renfrow, WR (ADP: 361): Renfrow has a shred of value in deep, full-PPR formats. PFF liked his work, grading him No. 42 at the position last year, and he has seen 71 and 77 targets in his first two seasons. Renfrow has scored six touchdowns in his career, showing a knack for scoring despite his small stature. I don’t view him as a game-changer for anyone’s roster, but he can help in an injury pinch.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: N/A)

Nobody’s drafting this D/ST, nor should they.