NCAA March Madness Bracket Busters: Upset Picks From

Filling out last-minute brackets and searching for fun upsets? I won’t lie to you and pretend I have the goods. I do, however, have a philosophy on how I pick my upsets. Without revealing the full recipe, I will put forth my favorite bracket busters, and provide a peek into the method to the March Madness.

Possible Deep Runs

Belmont (No. 11 seed): Belmont was successful Tuesday night in one of this year’s play-in games, topping Temple without even playing their best. There’s so much to like here. Belmont was 4th in the nation in field goal percentage (50 percent) and second in the nation in points per game (87). They are heavily reliant on four players, but their top two scorers and playmakers are both seniors. Dylan Windler is a 6’8 do-it-all machine who averaged 20.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists this season while draining 42.5 percent of his 3-pointers on 6.8 attempts a night. He is ridiculous, and fellow senior Kevin McClain is nearly as deadly from deep while serving as Belmont’s primary creator for others (four assists). Belmont also has size, unlike many mid-major trendy picks. Freshman Nick Muszynski, who was critical vs. Temple while the Owls focused on shutting down Windler, is a seven-footer who shot 61 percent from the field and blocked 2.2 shots per game. Belmont is also battle tested, scoring victories at UCLA and Murray State, while also dropping competitive games at Purdue and vs. Murray State on a neutral court.

They also open up against a vulnerable opponent in No. 6 Maryland, a team with a lot of raw talent, but which is dominated by underclassmen, and prone to high-turnover efforts. Young teams can be flustered by the NCAA Tournament environment, and if Belmont is making shots early, the young Terrapins could dig a deep hole.

Yale (No. 14 seed): Yale seems like a big long shot, but the Ivy League isn’t to be underestimated anymore, as previous Princeton and Harvard teams have shown us. Like Belmont, which whom Yale shares a region, they score well (81 PPG), their offensive core consists of upperclassmen, and they have a tall swingman who contributes across the board in Miye Oni. Oni averaged 17.6 points per game and 6/3 rebounds, while shooting about 39 percent from beyond the arc. Yale scores efficiently, and they pass the ball well, ranking just outside the Top 50 in assists, while boasting three heavy-minutes players who average three or more assists per game.

Matchup-wise, they seem to be in deep water against an extremely explosive LSU team that earned a No. 3 seed. The Tigers, however, are led by underclassmen, and a head coach mired in a recruiting scandal at the worst possible time. They flamed out in the SEC tournament losing in their first game vs. Florida, and struggle to shoot the ball for long stretches, which can spell doom in the NCAA Tournament against a well-oiled squad that can execute and shoot.

Round 1 Threats

New Mexico State (No. 12 seed): New Mexico State doesn’t have the flashy star player I tend to enjoy picking . Instead, the Aggies rely on balance, ranking 55th in the nation in team scoring, and 26th in the nation in opponents’ scoring. Their leading scorer, junior guard Terrell Brown, only scored 11.3 per game this year. Three other players hovered around 10 points per game, and their top six scorers are all upperclassmen. This is a mature, veteran squad entering the Madness in 2019, and one playing in their third straight NCAA Tournament. The Aggies boast a gaudy record, that includes a mere three-point loss to Kansas.

Auburn is going to be a difficult opponent, but the current junior and senior-laden squad they have this time around should have the wherewithal to withstand the 3-point onslaughts that the Tigers can rain down. If their defense clamps on Auburn’s shooters, suddenly the SEC tournament champions will look mighty vulnerable.

Vermont (No. 13 seed): As an America East alum, I’m familiar with Vermont’s dominance. They are a team that always plays stifling defense, and it’s not only because they face middling competition. Defense only gets you so far, however, because against the big boys in March Madness you need offense too. This season, Vermont has a stud in Anthony Lamb, who averaged  21 points and almost eight rebounds per game on 52 percent shooting, and 37 percent shooting from deep. Lamb is a threat to score from anywhere, and is enough of an athlete to hang with Florida State’s monsters. While the Seminoles have size and athleticism for days, they are decidedly average as a team in scoring, and they’re bad shooters from deep. They’re certainly going to struggle to score points vs. Vermont unless they completely kill the Catamounts in transition, which is unlikely thanks to Vermont’s slow pace. Vermont’s top four scorers are all 36 percent or better from long range, and they’re capable of stifling Florida State enough to steal one here.

Lastly, Vermont won’t be scared of FSU’s big-school pedigree. The Catamounts knocked off Yale and Harvard this season, hung tight in a close loss at Louisville, and experienced the wrath of Kansas. They are prepared for the spotlight.

Northern Kentucky (No. 14 seed): Northern Kentucky’s top two are an impressive duo. Senior Drew McDonald is another 6’8 stud playing for a small school; he nearly averaged a double-double this season, putting up 19.5 points and 9.5 assists per game. His partner in crime is Tyler Sharpe, a junior guard who averaged 14 points a game and shot 37.7 percent from 3-point land on damn near seven attempts. These two make up 41 percent of this team’s scoring, and Northern Kentucky ranked in the Top 40 this year in points per game. They are also built to survive some struggles from their big guns, because unlike some of the other offensively gifted double-digit seeds, the Norse hold opponents to 31.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Granted, the Horizon League doesn’t offer a particularly challenging slate, but that number is meaningful against a team like Texas Tech, which relies heavily on the 3. A lack of signature wins or big-name opponents besides Cincinnati, against whom they were throttled, stopped me from pulling the trigger on this game, but these guys should keep it exciting.

Won’t Win, But Will Be Fun!

Georgia State (No. 14 seed): Georgia State had us going last year for a while, and they’re returning the same group that threw a scare into Cincinnati. This team is very undersized, but they have a number of players who are lights out from deep; this team finished the season at 38.8 percent from beyond the arc, 17th in the nation. Unfortunately, their top scorer, leader, best player and emotional center, D’Marcus Simmonds, didn’t even shoot 30 percent from 3 this season. Simonds is a dynamic scorer and electric playmaker, but he hoisted 5.9 attempts a night, and that’s not ideal when he is surrounded by superior marksmen. Simonds gets his anyway, but a team like Georgia State can’t afford hiccups when they are slotted to face Houston and I’m afraid too many bricked Simonds 3-pointers will lead to too many Houston transition buckets to overcome. Still, the game will be fun as hell, at least for a while.