NFL Week 3 Best Bets Against the Spread

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick. For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record: 0-0

Survivor Teams Used: Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins (+23) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Dolphins are a league-wide laughingstock, and rightfully so after being outscored 102-10. The team is actively tanking for the No. 1 pick, and have traded multiple key members of the team since training camp. Still, they are an NFL team, consisting of NFL players and coaches who all possess professional pride and have the incentives of their own futures to play for. It is extremely unusual for an NFL team to be smacked around like a Division II college playing an SEC team for a beatdown. As bad as this team is, their schedule opened up with two absolutely brutal matchups vs. the Ravens and the Patriots. Those two defenses might finish 2019 as the best in the league, so it’s no surprise the Dolphins failed to do anything.

This week, they get the Cowboys, who can get after the quarterback a bit, but still represent a much softer defense to face. The Dolphins are also turning the offense over to second-year man Josh Rosen; that may not even be an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s still very unclear who Rosen is. His struggles last season were rough, but he also played behind a comically awful offensive line and equally inept coaching staff. Rosen represents some hope, whereas Fitzpatrick was a depressing symbol of how little effort Miami’s front office was putting into actual victories this year.

It's still very early in the season, so data isn’t too reliable yet. Narratives are still a big part of the equation, and the narrative right now is that the Dolphins may be historically bad. It’s possible, but it’s impossible to be worse than the 2017 Cleveland Browns, who completed an 0-16 campaign. Their worst loss that year was a 31-7 drubbing by the Bengals in Week 4. They had seven losses of 10 or fewer points, and lost four games by four or fewer points. The idea here is that even a dreadful team that failed to win a single game was able to be competitive on a semi-regular basis, and only lost one game by a margin greater than 23 points. It’s not easy, but the Dolphins are clearly the team to pick in this matchup.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Rams seem a bit underrated this year, somehow. They’re 2-0, with a gritty road win against the Panthers, and a domination of the Saints (albeit mostly sans Drew Brees). They are averaging 28.5 points per game, and aren’t struggling to move the ball at all. Meanwhile, the Browns absorbed an absolute ass-kicking in Week 1 from the Titans, who may bench their starting QB by Week 3, and padded their point differential vs. the Jets’ skeleton crew all while looking fairly unimpressive. Yes, the Browns are home, but the line is pretty fishy. Oh well, I’ll take the bait.

The Cleveland D is loaded with talent (Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson, Olivier Vernon etc.), but they rank 23rd in FootballOutsiders’ DAVE metric, despite facing two of the NFL’s most generic offenses. The cohesiveness is not there, and that’s going to be a problem for a Rams offense that can take a struggling defense behind the woodshed.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) over BUFFALO BILLS

No one wants to touch the Bengals right now after they were rolled up and smoked by the 49ers last week at home, but it was only two weeks ago they were trading blows with the Seahawks in Seattle. Is it possible they just ran into a red hot buzz saw when the Niners came in, and they’re actually not as terrible as their 0-2 record suggests?

The Bengals have changed from last season, and new coach Zac Taylor has revived the passing game. WR John Ross is blossoming into a potential star with A.J. Green on the mend, and Tyler Boyd has been a perfect high-volume counterpart. They’re also allowing Andy Dalton to let it fly; Dalton will never be considered elite, but he has proven he can rack up points and numbers when given opportunity and protection. So far, he’s averaging 364.5 yards per game, and the team is averaging 372.5 yards per game as a whole. With RB Joe Mixon active, that running game is bound to pick up.

On the flip side, we’re looking at a highly overvalued Bills team. They have the reputation of a big time defense, yet their DVOA is roughly the same as Detroit’s through two weeks. It’s not bad at all, but we aren’t going to confuse them with the ’85 Bears. Offensively, they aren’t scary. WR John Brown has been impressive to start the season, but we know who he is. Josh Allen is a dynamic player, but he remains very inaccurate as a passer so it’s not easy for Buffalo to sustain drives, and take advantage of Cincinnati’s soft defense.

Last but not least, the Bills have built their record by taking out the Jets and Giants, two teams whose seasons are already circling the drain. The Bills are rightfully favored, but there’s no way they should lay six points to anyone.

SURVIVOR PICK: DALLAS COWBOYS