NFL 2018 Week 4 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick for as long as I last (hopefully all the way to Week damn 17!). For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 4-5

Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots (Loser)

DENVER BRONCOS (+5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Time to live dangerously! There aren’t many people eager to bet against the Terminator that is Patrick Mahomes, but there’s a lot to like for Denver. First, they’re home. Second, the Chiefs’ defense ranks dead last in the NFL, clocking in 30th against the run and the pass. That could spell disaster vs. the Broncos, who have explosive skill players (Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas), a quality running game, and a QB, Case Keenum, who is capable of putting up stats.

KC’s offense has been scary, but they’ve lit up a decimated Chargers D, a Steelers team that played without top CB Joe Haden, and hasn’t been good since losing LB Ryan Shazier, and the 49ers. Hardly a murderers row. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t crossed paths with anything like Von Miller yet, and on the road that will be a shock. Denver’s defense is in the Top 5 so far vs. the run, so this may be the week Mahomes shows a few rookie warts.

Finally, 83.4 percent of bettors are on the Chiefs. Damn!

San Francisco 49ers (+11) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

You think I’m crazy. The 49ers have lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the season to a torn ACL, and his replacement, C.J. Beathard, is a bum. I get it. Per MyBookie.ag, 83 percent of bettors agree as of this writing. But when that many people are betting one way, it’s usually wise to go the other direction. Think…what about the Chargers makes them worthy of a double-digit spread? They are 1-2, have given up 35 or more in their two losses (Chiefs and Rams, but still), and are without their best pass rusher and top cornerback. The Chargers also are up against a Top 10 run defense per FootballOutsiders.com, so they could be mucked up if Melvin Gordon can’t get it going.

Additionally, Beathard is going to have some help. He has a solid running game, a big time deep threat in Marquise Goodwin, and a reliable tight end in George Kittle. If Beathard can avoid being a complete disaster – which he mostly did last season in six starts – the Niners have a decent shot at covering this spread. You’re not betting this on the strength of C.J. Beathard though, you’re countering an overzealous public.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9.5) over Buffalo Bills

Fresh off hitting the Vikings with a Stone Cold Stunner, the NFL is buzzing about Bills rookie QB Josh Allen and how the potential return of RB LeSean McCoy could boost the Bills into mediocrity rather than abject humiliation. I’m not buying it. That game was a classic trap for the Vikings, who got caught looking ahead to their primetime matchup with the Rams. This week, Allen has to travel to Lambeau Field, and the Bills, who feasted on the often reckless Kirk Cousins, now have to face a surgeon in Aaron Rodgers. It’s worth noting that Rodgers is pretty much playing on one leg; also note he’s thrown six touchdowns against zero interceptions. Yeah, bet the Packers.

SURVIVOR PICK (even though I got bounced)

GREEN BAY PACKERS over Buffalo Bills