NFL 2018 Week 3 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice
This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick for as long as I last (hopefully all the way to Week damn 17!). For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
Season Record: 3-3
Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams
Week 3
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7) over Los Angeles Chargers
After a bit of a tough week, I’m still having a bit of trouble figuring out how good or bad some teams are. My opinion of the Rams, however, is solidified. This is the best team in the NFL right now in my opinion, so in most cases I’m not going to be worried about them spotting points. The Chargers were a trendy pick in the preseason to go places, but injuries have ravaged their defense already, robbing them of top CB Jason Verrett and monster pass rusher Joey Bosa. Without those critical players, the Chargers’ defense has been ordinary. That’s a bad place to be when you are up against Sean McVay’s steamroller of an offense, led by transcendent RB Todd Gurley. This offense is going to chew up the Chargers, and defensively the Rams have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to playmakers. The Chargers aren’t a bad team by any means, but they are going to have a rough week. They are in no condition to slow down the Rams.
Oakland Raiders (+3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Oakland, at 0-2, and Miami, at 2-0, appear to be going in opposite directions. Now’s the time to strike with the Raiders, however, because talent-wise this isn’t an 0-3 team. My pick here is based on two things. First, I think the Raiders are figuring out that their offense needs to be hinging on the arm of Derek Carr, who has thrown 30+ passes in back-to-back games, and found WR Amari Cooper 10 times in Week 2. That’s encouraging, and certainly is the path to becoming a high-scoring team.
Second, the Dolphins’ record is sparkly, but they faced the Titans in a weird, lightning-delayed game in which Marcus Mariota got hurt and turned things over to Blaine Gabbert. Then, they took advantage of the Jets and rookie QB Sam Darnold in a classic letdown game scenario. The Dolphins are probably a little better than I expected, but I still am not a believer in Ryan Tannehill.
New England Patriots (-7) over DETROIT LIONS
I’ll double down even though I lost last week on the Pats. New England rarely loses twice in a row, and I pity a bad team that has to play them coming off a loss. The Lions’ offense is actually pretty competent, but even if they can move the ball their terrible defense is going to be shredded by Tom Brady, who just added Josh Gordon to his arsenal. The Patriots should also be increasing the role of rookie RB Sony Michel, who returned to active duty last week. This has the makings of a shellacking, and in the absence of tasty underdogs, I’ll lean on teams that I can rely on.
SURVIVOR PICK: New England Patriots over DETROIT LIONS