NFL 2018 Week 2 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick for as long as I last (hopefully all the way to Week damn 17!). For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 2-1

Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens

Week 2

Carolina Panthers (+6) over ATLANTA FALCONS

The Panthers are 1-0, but didn’t necessarily impress in a sluggish 18-9 win over the Cowboys, whose offense is depleted of playmakers and whose defense is average. The lack of scoring likely contributed to this surprising line, and says a lot about how the oddsmakers feel about both these teams. The oddsmakers seem to be underestimating, however, that Atlanta has lost S Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones for the season. Neal is a key playmaker in Atlanta’s secondary, and Jones was a high-end cover LB, who would have been central to their plans to contain RB Christian McCaffery. Offensively, the Falcons’ red zone issues are completely unresolved, and the Panthers aren’t a defense that will be favorable to a QB who is indecisive in red zone situations. The Falcons have more talent than Carolina, but they have not earned the respect that is attached to a six-point spread. Until proven otherwise, I’ll be betting against the Falcons when the spread is too high.

Detroit Lions (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

The Lions looked like a high school team getting thumped on primetime by the Jets, but if you watch the NFL enough, you know sometimes games like that just happen. I promise you that the Lions aren’t as bad as they looked on Monday night, and that they’ll be laser focused in Week 2. Teams that take an ass-whooping of that sort often bounce back strong the following game, and Detroit is up against a thoroughly okay 49ers squad. San Francisco doesn’t scare me in the least, especially with their two most explosive skill players, RB Jerick McKinnon and WR Marquise Goodwin, out with injuries (keep an eye on Goodwin, who hasn’t been ruled out just yet). Matthew Stafford will absolutely be better this Sunday, and the loss of RB LeGarrette Blount could be a blessing in disguise, opening the door for rookie RB Kerryon Johnson to be more than a grinder in the backfield. The 49ers are coming off a lackluster loss to the Vikings, and like the Falcons, have done nothing to earn the respect implied by this spread. This is an overreaction to Detroit being blown out by the Jets, who may be better than we thought.

New England Patriots (-3) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I don’t love many games this week, and I haven’t seen enough football to have reliable hunches, so I’ll fall back on a team that I know is excellent. I don’t care where Tom Brady is playing, it’s hard not to feel comfortable being on his side when he’s only got to cover three points. Yes the Jaguars have a tremendous defense, but CB Jalen Ramsey’s impact is neutered a bit against New England, who don’t have a star WR to remove from the equation. Their star pass-catcher is TE Rob Gronkowski, a player far too big for Ramsey to handle. Jacksonville’s offense looked pedestrian against the Giants, and they likely won’t have a fully healthy version of Leonard Fournette to lean on.

SURVIVOR PICK: LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona Cardinals