NFL 2018 Week 1 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick for as long as I last (hopefully all the way to Week damn 17!). For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 0-0

Survivor Teams Used: None

Week 1

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) over Dallas Cowboys

Week 1 is always the second-toughest week to make picks besides Week 17, because there isn’t any data to go off of, just biased perceptions and last year. So entering Week 1, I usually will utilize some of what I learned the previous season, and rely on teams about whom I’m especially confident in their outcomes. Heading into 2018, I’m not sure how the Panthers will fare, but I feel very confident that the Cowboys are going to be a dumpster fire.

Defensively, they were mediocre, at best, against the run, and worse against the pass. DeMarcus Lawrence and Jaylon Smith could give Dallas a decent pass rush, but the secondary is full of holes and Cam Newton is able to extend plays against the best of pass rushes. Carolina has improved their weaponry, and ditched RB Jonathan Stewart, so they’ll score. Dallas’ real problem isn’t even their defense though; this receiving corps is among the worst in the NFL, and they don’t have the type of QB (Dak Prescott) who can elevate middle-of-the-pack pass-catchers. WR Allen Hurns is the clear No. 1 target, and Prescott has lost his two favorite targets from last season, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten.

Dallas is a public team, so it’ll take a few games for people to realize they stink. This line really should be at five or six points in my humble opinion, so this is easily my favorite bet of the week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Chicago Bears

The Bears seem to be gaining some late steam as a sleeper in the NFC, but the faith is misplaced. Adding LB Khalil Mack is certainly a big deal, and this defense clearly has a ton of talent. Adding WR Allen Robinson and TE Trey Burton this offseason was also a big deal, because QB Mitch Trubisky needed the help. But fans saw the revival of Jared Goff last year with the Rams and want to assign that season to Trubisky in 2018. It’s a narrative that fits, but real life is messy.

The reality is that Trubisky played 12 games as a rookie, and eclipsed 200 yards passing in just three of them. He completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes, matched his seven touchdown passes with seven interceptions, and THREW SEVEN TOUCHDOWNS IN 12 GAMES. There’s a high probability that Trubisky just stinks, in which case this is a team that’s going to struggle. He’s also opening on the road against the Packers, who historically thrive at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers is a full-go for Week 1, and if the Bears are going to struggle as much as I expect to score points, there’s a very clear path for the Packers to cover this semi-modest spread.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

In Indianapolis, I’m excited about the return of Andrew Luck, but the truth is we don’t know how “back” he is at this early stage of the year. Beyond Luck, their running game is a mess with Marlon Mack banged up, and their receiving corps lacks any semblance of depth behind T.Y. Hilton. On the other hand, the Bengals have made improvements to their weak point last season, the offensive line, which makes them ripe to pick on the Colts’ 27th-ranked defense of a season ago (FootballOutsiders.com). QB Andy Dalton has speedster John Ross healthy to attract a bit of attention from A.J. Green, his TE Tyler Eifert is allegedly ready to go, and Joe Mixon figures to be the bell cow from the jump. This may be a road game, but it’s hard not to like an improved Cincy team against such a cupcake.

SURVIVOR PICK: BALTIMORE RAVENS over Buffalo Bills