NFL Week 5 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick for as long as I last For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 7-5

Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots (Loser), Green Bay Packers

NEW YORK JETS (pk) over Denver Broncos

There isn’t much statistical reasoning for this pick. The Jets have struggled to put up points in 2018, and have run one of the most risk-averse, boring offenses in football. Their offensive line is shoddy, and they’re up against Von Miller and rookie Bradley Chubb, two feared pass rushers. So why would I pick the Jets?

For one, Denver is surprisingly so-so vs. the run. Todd Bowles’ boring philosophy offensively is run-heavy, so a steady dose of Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell should be a positive for Gang Green. It also limits QB Sam Darnold’s exposure to the brutal pass rush and potential mistakes. On the other side of the ball, it appears as if Denver QB Case Keenum has turned back into a pumpkin. He hasn’t thron a TD pass in three games, and has thrown three picks in that span. He’s failed to eclipse 245 yards in those three games, and faces a Jets secondary that ranks second in the NFL per FootballOutsiders.com. Lastly, 90.9 percent of the action right now is on the Broncos. I had success betting against those kinds of numbers last week, and I’m not scared to ride that into Week 5.

BUFFALO BILLS (+3.5) over Tennessee Titans

Remember when the Bills stomped the Vikings and ruined (probably) your survivor pool? It was a game in which Buffalo was a home dog with no one wanting to touch them. This time, the Bills are not nearly as big an underdog, but it doesn’t change the perception of the game. Tennessee is a division-best 3-1, and the Bills reverted to bad form last week getting shut out by the Packers at Lambeau. This is a situational play here; Tennessee is fresh off an emotional win, and has a big showdown coming next week with another division leader, the Ravens. See the trap game!

If you need more, the Titans defense is actually quite bad vs. the run, ranking 25th per FootballOutsiders. This is a very nice opportunity for LeSean McCoy to get right, and for the Bills to keep it close at a minimum vs. a Titans offense that has mostly been underwhelming this season.

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I don’t mess with Thursday games, but last week’s Rams game was as close as I can get. I love the Rams every week right now, as Sean McVay’s ridiculous offense is covering every week. Each season has its team that dominates the spread every week, and this offense paired with the Rams’ talented D makes them a strong candidate to be the 2018 example. QB Jared Goff can’t be stopped right now, and even though this is in Seattle, the Seahawks’ defense is without its heart and soul, safety Earl Thomas. The Rams are likely chomping at the bit to attack these wounded Seahawks over the top with Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.

Defensively, the Seahawks’ offensive line could get Russell Wilson killed trying to block Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, and offensively their running game is a complete mess. This game is going to be ugly.

SURVIVOR PICK (even though I got bounced)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS over Washington Redskins