NFL Week 6 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick. For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 9-6

Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots (Loser), Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

81.3 percent of action is on the Falcons at the time of this writing, which means most bettors are banking on the Falcons turning it around in a home game vs. a bad defense. There’s logic to that, and there’s sense in counting on the Falcons to ravage the Buccaneers’ horrid defense, which ranks last in the NFL per FootballOutsiders.com. I do get it. But if this many people are sure enough to put hard-earned money on it, run the other way.

Tampa Bay has a potent offense of its own, and they get to feast on Atlanta’s injury-riddled defense. Jameis Winston is back, and he’s had a bye week to prepare for this game. And the Bucs have finally decided to give rookie RB Ronald Jones III a chance and are reducing the role of plodder Peyton Barber. Atlanta’s offense is flashy, but why so much faith in a 1-4 team? Be smarter than the pack.

DENVER BRONCOS (+7.5) over Los Angeles Rams

Last week I was on the Rams as the team that’s going to cover the spread every week, and I also hit on the Jets as a pick em’ against these very Bronocs. So why the flip flop? First, I underestimated the blow to the Rams’ defense losing Aqib Talib was. Without him, teams can pass on L.A.; while Case Keenum doesn’t scare anyone, WR Emmanuel Sanders could be a big problem for the Rams. This is also a home game in Denver, where the thin air could affect the Rams’ hyper-paced offense. I fully expect the Rams to win this game, and for Todd Gurley to get his, but I’ll happily take a touchdown and a half-point to boot with the Broncos, who are a strong home team and have the pass rushers to frustrate Jared Goff.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (pk) over Carolina Panthers

Washington was slaughtered in front of the nation on Monday, and that’s probably why 82.7 percent of the action is on the Panthers. That’s a ton of confidence in a road team whose best receiver is Devin Funchess, and whose pass defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. That is a potentially huge issue against Alex Smith, who isn’t necessarily prolific, but usually is efficient and limits turnovers. Alex Smith has the ability to move the ball consistently this week, wearing out the Panthers, and limiting their chances to punish the Redskins with Christian McCaffery and Cam Newton on the ground. These teams are closer in talent than most would think, and there’s huge recency bias in this spread. Washington is not so poor that they should be given no advantage on their home field. There’s value here.

SURVIVOR PICK (even though I got bounced)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS over Arizona Cardinals