NFL Week 7 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick. For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 11-7

Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots (Loser), Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings

Tennessee Titans (+7) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Fresh off one of the worst offensive performances in recent memory, the Titans are now getting a full touchdown against the Chargers. With a whopping 86.1 percent of bettors siding with the Chargers, it’s time to strike on the other side. The 4-2 Chargers have been impressive, showing off a balanced and potent offense most weeks, and enough defense to earn those Ws. Their only two losses have come against the unbeaten Rams and one-loss Chiefs; the NCAA Tournament Selection committee would drool at this strength of schedule. But with that said, the Chargers aren’t without weaknesses.

First, they are still without Joey Bosa and Jason Verrett, two crucial members of the defense. This defense will represent stark relief for Marcus Mariota and co., whose offensive tailspin has coincided with matchups against the Bills and Ravens, both Top 3 defenses in the NFL. Second, their “home field” isn’t much of an advantage. You’re getting a few extra points here that the L.A. crowd hasn’t earned. The Chargers are good, but this spread is what a really good team gets vs. an opponent in the Titans’ range. I’m unconvinced the Chargers deserve that much respect at this point.

New York Giants (+6.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

While everyone runs for the hills from the Giants, I’ll hop in the saddle. The Giants’ problems stem from poor protection, and a QB with concrete in his cleats whose motor functions cease operation when there’s pressure. Luckily for Eli Manning, he won’t see pressure this week! If the Giants can give him some time, he will get to pick apart the NFL’s fourth-worst pass defense per FootballOutsiders.com, with arguably the NFL’s best collection of skill players, including returning stud TE Evan Engram. I will admit I’m worried about the Giants secondary containing all-world WR Julio Jones, and it’s possible the Falcons could boatrace Big Blue in the dome, but with 80.4 percent of the action on Atlanta at the time of this writing, it seems like a trap. The Falcons have two wins, take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

It might seem crazy to bet against the Chiefs juggernaut, but coming off an emotional roller coaster in primetime vs. the Patriots, they’re at a disadvantage facing a solid Bengals squad on a shorter-than-usual turnaround. Kansas City has a monstrous offense, but their defense ranks dead-goddamn-last vs. the run, which is bad news with Joe Mixon coming to town. Their pass defense is improving, but it’s still just 18th in the NFL, and A.J. Green can punish them over the top with S Eric Berry still out. Cincinnati’s defense is vulnerable as well, which makes this matchup a little scary to put hard-earned coin on, but this is another game in which nearly 80 percent of the action is one the Chiefs. It’s just not that easy picking these games, and the Chiefs are being treated as if they don’t have exploitable holes.

SURVIVOR PICK (even though I got bounced)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Buffalo Bills