NFL Week 8 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick. For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 13-8

Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots (Loser), Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts

New York Jets (+7.5) over CHICAGO BEARS

The Jets are coming off a rough loss at home to the Vikings in which rookie QB Sam Darnold completed only 17 passes on 42 attempts, and was picked off three times. Now they have to go on the road and try to stop Khalil Mack from ripping the rookie’s head off. It is a daunting scenario, which is why 84.8 percent of bettors are backing the Bears at the time of this writing. But this is actually the right time to lean into Gang Green.

The Jets are not a particularly good team, but they carry a reputation as a joke, which was accurate for previous iterations of the team. The 2018 Jets are okay. They have premier talent on the defensive line (Leonard Williams), the secondary (Jamal Adams), a competent running game, and serviceable weapons for Darnold.

Aside from the overwhelming action on the Bears, which at times is enough for me to recommend betting the opposite way, I don’t see the Jets are a particularly favorable matchup for Chicago’s weird offense. They have wrung tons of production from unorthodox weapons like Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel, but the fact remains that Mitch Trubisky is not a great quarterback. The Bears’ new system has allowed him to feast when he faces a porous defense, and his stats are inflated by his ability to scramble; the Jets, though, have the talent to check him. The Jets rank inside the Top 15 vs. the pass and the run, and inside the Top 10 against running backs in the passing game per FootballOutsiders.com. If the Jets are able to get the ground game going early on the back of Isaiah Crowell, they can control time of possession, keep this low scoring, and put themselves in position to cover this spread of more than a touchdown. In the current NFL, getting points is golden. When you can get a decent team getting more than a full touchdown it’s appealing.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

The Jaguars lost an ugly one last week vs. Houston in which their QB, Blake Bortles, was chased from the game like an ineffective starting pitcher. The performance is raw in people’s minds, as 88 percent of the current action is on the Eagles. That’s way too much love for a 3-4 team on the road!

We’ve been here before with Bortles. The guy is definitely not a quality NFL QB, but he has also bounced back from various rock bottoms in his career to put up monster games. I’m not sure a monster game is in the offing, but he’s definitely played better at home in 2018. Six of Bortles’ nine touchdowns are at home, and while this game is actually being played in London, the Jaguars are in the U.K. annually, so it’s much more of a home game for him than for any of the Eagles. Let’s also take stock of Philadelphia, the defending champions, who are in the midst of a serious Super Bowl hangover. This defense is nothing special, ranking a weak 23rd in the NFL against the run through seven weeks. That’s a significant enough sample size for me to deduce that they have problems against quality rushing attacks. The Jaguars need to rush the ball well to succeed, and have T.J. Yeldon and new acquisition Carlos Hyde at the ready to pound the rock. Conversely, Philly hasn’t been able to run the ball well, and Carson Wentz has taken to peppering Alshon Jeffery with targets. Most weeks that’s a wonderful plan, but this Sunday he’ll likely have Jalen Ramsey glued to him. It all adds up to a possible nail biter, and that extra half-point makes me happy.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts

I know, I’m insane right? The Raiders suck, they’re tanking, they just traded Amari Cooper. I really do get it. But when 94 percent of action is on a 2-5 team, that’s a tremendous, bright red flag. Think of it this way; the Raiders are down Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper, but what were those guys doing for them anyway? The narrative of the tanking Raiders is driving this overwhelming action, but players themselves don’t tank. The players play hard, and with the level of disrespect and venom being aimed at them this week it would be no surprise to see them come out of the gates on fire. Derek Carr has been accused of lacking toughness and literally crying on the field, losing his teammates’ respect in the process. Derek Carr is going to be on a mission Sunday, and he’ll be throwing on the 21st-ranked pass defense in football. Doug Martin may not be a steep downgrade from the aging Lynch, and Lynch’s absence might wind up serving as a chance for Jalen Richard to expand his playmaking. The Colts offense has the potential to throw all over Oakland, but the Raiders are sneaky good against the run. If they stymie Marlon Mack early, they could make Indianapolis one-dimensional, create some takeaways, and shock the world. Except for us because we are smart and threw some shekels on the Raiders.

SURVIVOR PICK (even though I got bounced)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Cleveland Browns