NFL Week 9 Best Bets Against the Spread and Survivor Pool Advice

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick. For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 13-11

Survivor Teams Used: Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots (Loser), Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Titans may not be pretty to watch offensively, but the Cowboys giving almost a touchdown is purely because the betting public loves betting on America’s team. There is nothing about these Cowboys that leads me to believe they should be giving more than three or four points to any team; the addition of WR Amari Cooper was flashy, but his drops and relative unfamiliarity with this offense and QB Dak Prescott mean he shouldn’t be moving the line at all. Dallas has one of the NFL’s most vanilla, plodding offenses and Tennessee’s defense isn’t so poor that you can just bank on their opponent boat racing them.

Conversely, Dallas’ defense has been better than expected in 2018, but they also struggle against the pass (24th per FootballOutsiders.com). Coming off a bye, the Titans are fresh and a weak secondary may be just what Marcus Mariota needs to get his season on track. Take the points.

New York Jets (+3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Jets were just pummeled by the Bears, and have to stay on the road this week vs. a division rival. It’s the perfect time to take them. Last week I backed the Jets because I don’t believe in Mitch Trubisky, but I underestimated the totality of the Bears’ defense. This week, the Jets get Miami, a defense that cannot be confused with Chicago’s. While the Jets aren’t a very good team, they’re one of the better “bad” teams. They have a solid defense that actually forces turnovers, and this is a great opportunity to take advantage of a ball-hawking team that gets to feast on Brock Osweiler. The extra half-point gives you a full field goal to work with in what should be a very tight, low-scoring tilt.

BUFFALO BILLS (+10.5) over Chicago Bears

I doubted the Bears last week, and I’m doubting them again. I understand the Bills have few weapons, and that Nathan Peterman is starting. The signing of WR Terrelle Pryor is encouraging. Pryor is not only immediately Buffalo’s most impactful receiver, he’s a legitimate threat as a wildcard QB. He and LeSean McCoy might make things happen, and when you are getting more than 10 points at home one or two big scoring plays make all the difference. In addition to the big spread, the Bills’ defense is surprisingly good. They’re fifth in the NFL per FootballOutsiders and Top 5 against the pass. They can limit the big plays that Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel have been ripping off, and if they can turn over Trubisky and gain field position advantages, it’s easy to see them covering.

SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK (even though I got bounced)

Kansas City Chiefs over CLEVELAND BROWNS