NFL Week 12 Best Bets Against the Spread

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my three favorite bets of the week against the spread. For transparency, I will give you my record. All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

Season Record: 16-14

Atlanta Falcons (+13.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The temptation is to roll with the Saints regardless of the spread these days, especially after they absolutely torched the Super Bowl champions last week. But don’t sleep on the Falcons. They may be in a big hole, but they aren’t completely out of the playoff hunt, and they still have an elite offense. Matt Ryan is averaging more than 350 yards per game through the air, and the Saints will enter with the NFL’s 28th-ranked pass defense, even after holding Carson Wentz to 156 yards and zero touchdowns (with three picks). It’s no stretch to fully expect a Saints victory, but even with Atlanta’s porous defense, I can’t recommend laying almost two touchdowns in good conscience.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) over Cleveland Browns

The Bengals have lost the faith of bettors, but this is a great time to jump on board. It looks like star WR A.J. Green might return to the field, but even if he doesn’t, the Bengals are well-equipped to gash the Browns where they are weakest. Cleveland’s defense ranks 26th against the run; the Bengals have Joe Mixon, one of the top RBs in football, and a Top 10 offensive line in FootballOustiders.com’s Power Rank metric. The Browns are improved from a season ago, but they’re in the midst of a mid-season coaching change, and taking on a desperate postseason contender. They should be getting more than three points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Yes, the Steelers are on the road vs. a tough defense with a strong pass rush that’s coming off a rousing divisional win. That’s a narrative, and facts on the ground don’t care about a narrative. The Steelers have the second best offensive line in terms of pass protection, the best WR in football, and a Top 5 overall offense. Denver’s defense is good, but it isn’t the dominant unit of the Peyton Manning days. These days, a chance to ride a Top 5 offense only giving 3.5 points is a blessing