NFL Playoff Betting: Divisonal Round Best Bets Against The Spread

The regular season is past us, and so are the ebbs and flows of the NFL schedule. We’re down to (mostly) high-level teams, in which everyone is playing all-out. It’s about matchups, talent, and home field now. Here are my picks against the spread for the NFL Divisional round, and I’ll be sure to specify which ones I’m confident recommending.

All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3) over Atlanta Falcons

I could be completely wrong about the Falcons, and utterly underestimating the fact that they are Top 5 in Yards Per Offensive Play per Profootball-reference.com, but I simply don’t believe in this year’s version of the team. Throughout the season they have fallen far short of the offensive expectations they set the year before, when they won the NFC title. They benefitted a great deal from early Rams mistakes last week, and – please be aware this is completely subjective and anecdotal – QB Matt Ryan still isn’t resembling the MVP form he showed a year ago.

Having said all that, they are facing an Eagles squad that has Nick Foles at QB, replacing an MVP frontrunner (Carson Wentz) who was the architect of many of their biggest plays. Foles isn’t very good, but he’s not a disaster. In the two relevant games he started in 2017, Foles threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns while tossing one pick and completing 57 percent of his passes. He was competent. The Eagles will be home, in front of a rabid fan base, and they have the luxury of leaning on RB Jay Ajayi, who has averaged 5.8 yards per carry since being traded to Philly. Atlanta’s defense has been middle of the road all year, so even though they have a solid pass rush, they’re susceptible to long drives.

Conversely, the Eagles defense has been one of the best in the NFL from start to finish. The unit ranks fifth in the NFL per FootballOutsiders.com, third against the run, and seventh overall vs. No. 1 receivers, which is bad news for Julio Jones. This game should be close, but when the No. 1 overall seed is getting points vs. a team I have questions about, I’ll happily grab the points. RECOMMEND.

Tennessee Titans (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Tennessee was my favorite pick last week, and it played out very much as I expected. They rode RB Derrick Henry – who has been vastly superior to DeMarco Murray all year – to a second half comeback against a Chiefs D that wilted as it tends to do without S Eric Berry. This week, the Titans are up against a much more formidable foe, and if they fall behind again in the first half, they’re unlikely to mount such a furious comeback against a Bill Belichick defense. But…if they continue to rely on Henry they have a chance to slow the game down and manage to cover this gargantuan spread.

The Patriots’ defense did improve over the course of the year, but they still finished as the NFL’s third-lowest ranked defense per FootballOutsiders, and they ranked 30th against the run. Provided the Titans don’t give them a break and overuse their possibly-shot veteran, and instead use their enormous battering ram who also runs a 4.5 40-yard dash, they could keep this a game.

Ultimately, Tennessee’s defense is blah at best, and even in soft matchups their offense has short-circuited at times. An outright upset is extremely unlikely, especially since I view the coaching matchup here as particularly lopsided. I do think the Titans will probably be smart enough to use Henry a ton though, so I simply don’t love giving so many points. STAY AWAY.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

This matchup is very interesting. The Jaguars offense was stuck in neutral last week, failing to cover their 9.5-point spread despite holding the Bills to three points. 10 points will absolutely not cut it vs. the Steelers, regardless of them having the No. 1 defense in football. But, their defense does present interesting problems for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh relies heavily on the passing game, but their top receiver, Antonio Brown, is coming back from a partially torn calf that he suffered just a few weeks ago. He can’t possibly be at full strength, and he’ll have to contend with CB Jalen Ramsey, one of the best corners in the league. Jacksonville was the top-ranked defense against opposing No. 1 receivers.

The Steelers, however, are well-equipped to hit the Jags where they are weak though. Le’Veon Bell is arguably the best RB in the league, and the Jags ended 2017 with just the 26th-ranked run defense. Bell led the NFL in carries/targets per game this year, so Mike Tomlin will have no problems repeatedly feeding him the football. Despite Jacksonville’s playmaking D, expect the Steelers to score.

The key for Jacksonville will be rookie RB Leonard Fournette having a monster game. Pittsburgh had a Top 10 pass defense this year, and Blake Bortles is not putting the team on his back in the postseason. The Steelers were middle-of-the-pack this year (18th) against the run, and the loss of Ryan Shazier is a big deal. Fournette seemed worn down by year’s end, however, failing to hit 70 rushing yards in four of his final five tilts, then rushing for just 57 yards on 21 carries vs. the Bills. This might be close early, but expect the Steelers to take over an cover. RECOMMEND.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4) over New Orleans Saints

Once again, the Saints are in the most interesting matchup of the week. Drew Brees turned back the clock last week dicing Carolina for 376 yards and two touchdowns. For New Orleans to keep winning, however, it’s important that they re-establish their two-headed monster in the running game. The Vikings are a rough opponent to do that against. Minnesota ranked fifth this year vs. the run, and fourth vs. the pass; it’s one of the finest defenses in football this year, and unlike the Panthers, they have CB Xavier Rhodes to throw at Saints receiver Michael Thomas.

On the flip side, the Saints’ defense was a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde outfit. They ranked Top 5 vs. the pass, and 23rd against the run. That’s not ideal for the Vikings, who have been mediocre on the ground since Dalvin Cook was lost for the year, mostly thriving on big plays to WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.

All in all, these teams figure to be pretty evenly matched, with both sides having significant advantages against the other. I lean toward the Vikings due to their home field advantage and their consistently excellent defense, but it’s too tough to feel very confident. STAY AWAY.