NFL Playoff Betting: Wildcard Round Picks, Bets Against the Spread
The regular season is past us, and so are the ebbs and flows of the NFL schedule. We’re down to (mostly) high-level teams, in which everyone is playing all-out. It’s about matchups, talent, and home field now. Here are my picks against the spread for the NFL Wildcard round, and I’ll be sure to specify which ones I’m confident recommending.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
Tennessee Titans (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I am not sure how Vegas oddsmakers are dealing with RB DeMarco Murray’s injury, but as a bettor you should be excited about a sneaky factor that should tilt you toward the underdogs. It’s no secret that Derrick Henry has vastly outperformed Murray whenever he’s been given the chance that year, but peep this; the Titans are 7-1 in games in which Henry has registered double-digit carries. That shouldn’t be too shocking, since he’s averaged 4.2 yards per carry to Murray’s 3.6, in an offense that leans heavily on the run.
Increased usage of Henry has been crucial to Tennessee’s success – not that head coach Mike Mularkey has really noticed – but with Murray limping he’s got no choice. That will be very helpful for the Titans against the league’s worst run defense.
Kansas City has given up 100+ yards on the ground 12 times this year, and allowed more than 150 yards a whopping five times. They seem ill-equipped to handle a savage like Henry.
Tennessee also has some negative statistics that are deceptively severe. Their point differential is minus-22, a discouraging number for a playoff team. That number is inflated, however, by a 57-14 shellacking in Week 4 vs. the Texans, and a 40-17 beat down in Week 11 vs. the Steelers. Their last three losses were by an average of 3.6 points, and aside from the two blowouts, they didn’t lose any other game by more than 10.
Of course, I’m being kind to a disappointing Titans offense that has been lukewarm at best all year, and has been held to 17 or fewer points six times this season. I’m banking on Henry being a difference maker, on the Titans to use their running game to keep the score close, and for playoff Andy Reid to make mistakes that cost his team. RECOMMEND.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5) over Atlanta Falcons
I do not love this line, because the Falcons are an experienced group with a lot of talent at the skill positions. However, they’ve had 16 games to put the pieces together and resemble the squad that led by 25 points at halftime of last year’s Super Bowl, and they’ve looked like a hot mess for most of the year. With a gun to my head, I’ll roll with the Rams, who look like they have a meta-human at RB (Todd Gurley), and a defense that can wreak havoc.
The Rams’ lone vulnerability appears to be on the ground, where FootballOutsiders.com ranks them just 22nd in the NFL. That could be neutralized, however, if the Rams leap out in front of Atlanta early, which Gurley gives them the ability to do. The Falcons rank 20th in the NFL vs. the run, and Gurley is a specimen who can overpower even the top run defenses. The Rams’ offensive line ranks third in the league in adjusted line yards (4.7), so Atlanta will need to seriously outperform their norm to slow him down.
I respect Atlanta’s offensive potential too much to recommend this strongly, but I do feel pretty confident the Rams will win. BE CAREFUL/BET RAMS MONEYLINE.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-9) over Buffalo Bills
Let me be clear, the Bills have no business in the postseason. They rank 27th in adjusted line yards, 28th in “stuffed” rank, and second-to-last in pass protection. At one point this season they benched their QB Tyrod Taylor for an unknown rookie who threw five picks in ONE HALF. The only big threat in this offense is RB LeSean McCoy, and while McCoy racked up more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage this season he was also carted off the field in Week 17 with an ankle injury.
Now, for the bad news.
The Bills are wounded and walking into a matchup with the NFL’s No. 1 defense, which ranked second in the sport in takeaways (33), first in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6) and second in sacks (55). This defense is ferocious, and they will get after Taylor all day long.
Lastly, the Bills rank 31st in the NFL against the run, and the Jaguars’ engine is rookie back Leonard Fournette. Overall, the Bills should be happy they’ve snapped their 17-year postseason drought, but their stay will be very short. RECOMMEND.
Carolina Panthers (+6.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints are a gaudy 7-1 at home, so I do think they’ll win this game. I’m just not comfortable laying 6.5 points against former MVP Cam Newton, and Carolina’s Top 7 defense which has ranked a healthy sixth in the NFL this year vs. the run. This matchup should be the best game of the Wildcard round, and looks to be the most evenly matched.
In the regular season the Saints took it to the Panthers twice, shelling them 34-13 in Week 3 and winning 31-21 in Week 13.
That track record would point toward the Saints winning at home and covering, but New Orleans’ weakness vs. the run (23rd) gives me pause, as does Newton’s ability to go buckwild in any game vs. any defense. I expect the Saints will move on, but it could be close. STAY AWAY and enjoy the show.