NFL Week 17 Best Bets Against the Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 21-21-3
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Carolina Panthers (+4) over ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons need the game more than Carolina does, but the Panthers could conceivably play their way into a first-round bye. So while Vegas is giving the Panthers the edge because they’re home, and they are more desperate, this team just isn’t the same as the one that made the Super Bowl a year ago. The faces are largely the same, but the offense is very far from the unstoppable big play machine former coordinator Kyle Shanahan constructed.
Atlanta has been held to 17 or fewer points six times this season, and they will be facing a motivated Panthers defense that has ranked eighth in the NFL (sixth vs. the run). Week 16 was a must-win for Atlanta as well, and they managed a measly 13 points against the Saints. Between their Super Bowl meltdown, and their repeated egg-laying in big spots this season, I don’t trust them giving four points to a quality opponent, especially with how well former MVP Cam Newton has been playing down the stretch.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-1.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
In the opposite scenario of the last game, the Jaguars are all set and have nothing more to play for, and therefore no incentive to risk a single starter. It’s unclear if the Jaguars plan to rest studs like RB Leonard Fournette and CB Jalen Ramsey, but if those players suit up, it’s unlikely they’ll play four quarters. On the other hand, Tennessee is in a win-and-in scenario, so they should be firing on all cylinders.
The Titans have not lived up to high expectations, but there’s reason for optimism. For one, RB Derrick Henry is going to get a full workload with DeMarco Murray out, and the Jaguars ranked just 26th in the league against the run even when they had the starters in. Second, if Ramsey does not play, that gives the Titans’ talented receiving corps a chance to do damage. Tennessee should win comfortably if the Jags bench starters, and the 1.5 points at home seems like a gimme.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Seattle is on the outside looking in, but they will snag a sixth seed if they win and the Falcons fall (which I’m predicting). The spread seems high, but Seattle, at home, in a must-win should slaughter the dead-on-their-feet Cardinals. The QB situation is dire, and head coach Bruce Arians looks like he’s on his way out. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, there’s nothing happening in the desert besides the NFL’s top-ranked run defense; too bad the Seahawks have given up on running the ball weeks ago. The Cardinals have surrendered 28 or more points in six of their eight losses, and with nothing to play for, on the road vs. a hungry Seattle squad, this could get ugly in terms of the scoreboard.