NFL Week 16 Best Bets Against the Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 20-20-2
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-11) over Buffalo Bills
The Pats are coming off a loss to the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, and a narrow win over the Steelers in which a bad rule pretty much saved their ass. So why would I be eager to take them when they’re giving 11 points to a division rival? Well, because they’re a lot better than the Bills. Don’t let the 8-6 record fool you, the Bills are a limited squad because of an utter lack of options in the passing game besides a hobbled Kelvin Benjamin. They rely entirely on RB LeSean McCoy, and while the Patriots have the worst run defense in the NFL according to FootballOutsiders.com, they are less vulnerable to one-dimensional offenses.
Buffalo is also significantly worse away from home, going 2-4 in road games and giving up 34 points to the Jets and 54 points to the Chargers in two of those losses. Finally, this is a game the Patriots actually need in order to maintain home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Expect them to be playing all their big guns, and for them to come into this matchup focused. That’s bad news for an inferior offense up against a smart defense that has rounded into form in the back half of the 2017 campaign.
Los Angeles Chargers (-7) over NEW YORK JETS
At this time of the year, the talent tends to rise to the top, and the ebbs and flows of the regular season give way to which team is better. There’s no question the Chargers are a much better football team than the Jets, and this week they get to unleash their underrated pass rush on Bryce Petty, who is borderline as an NFL QB, let alone a starter. The Chargers need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they have one of the top WRs in football, Keenan Allen, ready to face off with the NFL’s weakest defense against No. 1 WRs. Allen should have a field day, and RB Melvin Gordon is likely to ride a huge workload to a major outburst. This has all the makings of a blowout, especially considering the importance of the game to Los Angeles, and the utter lack of urgency for Gang Green.
Cleveland Browns (+6) over CHICAGO BEARS
This will backfire I’m sure, since the Browns consistently fail to cover spreads, but if they’re going to avoid a winless season this is the one they’ve got to get. The Bears rely on the running game, and the Browns – shockingly enough – have the top-ranked run defense in football, per FootballOutsiders.com. Cleveland is almost as weak against the pass as they are strong against the run, but Bears rookie Mitch Trubisky is poorly equipped to take full advantage of a bad secondary.
Chicago, on the other hand, has a sneaky decent defense that ranks inside the Top 15. However, they’re weak vs. WR1s, and the return of Josh Gordon means the Browns have a matchup they can exploit. I like the Browns to get their first win this year, but even if they don’t this should be a game in which the Browns can at least cover a spread of nearly a touchdown.