NFL Playoff Betting: AFC and NFC Championship Bets Against the Spread

The regular season is past us, and so are the ebbs and flows of the NFL schedule. We’re down to (mostly) high-level teams, in which everyone is playing all-out. It’s about matchups, talent, and home field now. Here are my picks against the spread for the NFL Championship round, and I’ll be sure to specify which ones I’m confident recommending.

All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The line has dropped from nine points at opening to 7.5 points now, largely – in my humble opinion – because Tom Brady has reportedly injured his right hand. That’s definitely not good, and there’s more bad news for New England.

The general game plan versus the Belichick Patriots over the years has been to beat them with a ferocious pass rush, a dominant running game, and an absence of unforced errors. Jacksonville brings the NFL’s top-ranked defense, a league-leading sack total, and a monster RB in rookie Leonard Fournette. I realize I’m making an excellent case for the Jaguars, but there’s a crucial box that I’m not confident the Jaguars can check. Blake Bortles will need to play mistake-free football on Sunday, but he will face a coach who specializes in confounding opposing QBs. While Bortles did have a very nice game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and avoided being intercepted through two postseason games, his career suggests a setback is coming.

On offense, the Jaguars do have the top-ranked defense in football, but this unit comes up short in comparison to some of the past great defenses. Even in their huge win last week they surrendered 378 yards of total offense to Ben Roethlisberger. Brady is capable of torching any defense, and New England’s running game is one of the best in the NFL. The Patriots rank first in Adjusted Line Yards (5.05) and third in Stuffed rank, per FootballOutsiders.com; they also rank second in second-level yards, mostly thanks to shifty RB Dion Lewis. The Jaguars have been much better vs. the pass this year than the run, so New England will likely try to gash them all day. RECOMMEND (provided Brady starts).

Minnesota Vikings (-3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

I was all over the Eagles last week, largely because of their defense, which made me look really damn smart. Their defense is still excellent, and they’re still at home, but the Minnesota matchup sure is an ugly one for them.

Starting Nick Foles at QB is not ideal; I don’t think he is an awful QB, but I certainly don’t think he’s above-average. The Falcons brought a very so-so defense to Philly, and Foles threw for 246 yards, with no touchdowns and no picks. It was a very Foles-ish game. That game is not going to cut it against the Vikings, who pack the No. 2 defense in football per FootballOutsiders, and rank in the Top 5 vs. the run and pass. Philadelphia hasn’t hit 20 points in any of Foles’ last three starts; one was an abbreviated start because they’d already clinched, but the other two were against Oakland (29th) and Atlanta (22nd). These are hardly stiff matchups here, and Foles is just not good enough to capitalize in a big way.

Now, I must mention that the Eagles’ defense is very capable as well. They’re also in the Top 5, and Case Keenum is an unlikely NFC Championship QB. Keenum, though, is unfairly being lumped in with Foles lately. Keenum seems to have found a system in which he thrives, and resembles a breakout passer a la Kirk Cousins, rather than a fortunate backup as Foles once did under Chip Kelly.

Keenum, who has two high-end receivers (Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen) to throw to, has thrown two or more touchdowns seven times this year. More importantly, he has thrown ZERO interceptions in 10 games, has been picked off more than once just twice all year. Keenum probably won’t light Philly up, but the odds are good he wont’ make any mistakes. If that is the case, expect Minnesota’s defense to hold the Eagles close to scoreless and win a slugfest. RECOMMEND.