NFL Week 13 Best Bets Against The Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 15-18
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+6) over Philadelphia Eagles
If you think I’m crazy for picking against the Eagles, who admittedly look like the best team in the NFL right now, I understand. But let’s not forget that Seattle’s fans have their own nickname – the 12th man – and this team is rarely an underdog at home, and definitely not a six-point dog.
Seattle may not have the wrecking ball defense of seasons past, largely due to injuries in their vaunted secondary, but the Seahawks are traditionally a brutal team to play in their own building. With a huge matchup like this looming, the crowd will be in full force, and will create the most hostile regular season environment possible for second-year QB Carson Wentz. Also, while the Seattle defense is a shell of its former self, their offense has become an explosive unit through the air thanks to Russell Wilson’s evolution. He’s been running for his life and making plays on the run for years behind the Seahawks’ annually porous offensive line; it’s led to him having his best season, and transformed them into a squad that can score on any defense. The Seahawks may not win this game, but always take them at home getting almost a full touchdown.
New England Patriots (-9) over BUFFALO BILLS
I’ve relied on the Patriots before, and despite facing a Bills team that is significantly better at home than on the road, this team is humming. The Pats are averaging 36 points per game over the last three weeks, and that includes two road games at the Raiders and Broncos. They seem to have found their RB rotation, settling on Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, and that duo gets to run wild on Buffalo’s 27th-ranked run defense. The Bills are better vs. the pass – 11th per FootballOutsiders.com – but that is completely irrelevant when Tom Brady is the passer.
There’s also the matter of Bills coach Sean McDermott refusing to commit to Tyrod Taylor as his starter, despite the other option, Nathan Peterman, throwing an absurd five interceptions in his only half of football in 2017. That knd of turmoil will not serve them well against the New England juggernaut.
Detroit Lions (+2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens have the No. 1-ranked defense in football according to FootballOutsiders.com, but it’s a soft No. 1. They rank 10th against the run, and their pass defense is inflated by a slew of bad quarterbacks. Offensively, Joe Flacco hasn’t looked anything like the postseason world-beater he once was, and the entire offense revolves around RB Alex Collins. While Collins is a quality back, that’s no recipe for beating good teams.
Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense has more than enough weapons to puncture Baltimore’s defense. Matthew Stafford has thrown two or more touchdowns in four straight games, and in five of his last six. He has his full complement of receivers, and a cushy matchup for TE Eric Ebron if the gets in the red zone.