NFL Week 11 Best Bets Against the Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 14-16
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Los Angeles Rams (+2) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Rams are such a beautiful pick this week. The Vikings stomped all over the Redskins last week – horrible pick by me, sorry – but I was definitely a week early picking against the Purple. QB Case Keenum looked good statistically throwing four touchdowns vs. the Redskins, but he still threw two picks. In his career, Keenum has tended to be turnover prone, and the Rams lead the league in takeaways (19). Keenum has Teddy Bridgewater looming over his shoulder, and the Rams’ defense can make much better passers nervous. Los Angeles has the top-ranked defense in the NFL per FootballOutsiders.com; they are second against the pass, and a solid 15th vs. the run – important when you are trying to stop the Vikings.
Defensively, the Vikings hold their own, but they aren’t dominant. The Rams have the top-scoring offense in football, so coupled with their defensive advantages, I’ll happily grab two points.
DENVER BRONCOS (-2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
The Broncos are a proud team, and coming off a beating, teams tend to respond. I’ll roll with that logic in this one, banking on Denver in their own building, and against a team that is the definition of BLAH in every phase of the game. Brutal shellacking aside, the Broncos still own the top-ranked run defense in the NFL, and a respectable 17th-ranked pass defense.
The Bengals are exactly the type of team for Denver’s defense to regain its swagger against. The Bengals rank 25th and 26th, respectively, in passing and rushing offense; they have put up the fewest rushing yards (631) in the NFL, the fifth-fewest passing yards, and their offensive line ranks a ghastly 28th in pass protection. Andy Dalton is not the kind of QB who can overcome that with his natural ability. The line is an overreaction to Denver being blown out by the Patriots, pick them with confidence.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
It feels very wrong to pick the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game in which they’re favored by more than a touchdown, but the Browns are that bad. Cleveland has an atrocious defense that stands to be chewed up and spit out by RB Leonard Fournette. Their defense has proven to be no fluke; FootballOutsiders.com ranks the Jaguars’ pass defense as the best in the NFL, and they are tied for 2nd in the league with 18 takeaways. That plays well into the Browns matchup, as Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer is the most turnover-prone starter in football.
Lastly, when Jacksonville wins, they win BIG. The Jags have outscored opponents 173-47 in their wins in 2017, so covering spreads is no issue when they are clicking. I don’t fear Cleveland’s home field, and they simply don’t match up well.