NFL Week 14 Best Bets Against the Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 17-19
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars’ 8-4 record is impressive this season, and their pass defense is deservedly the top-ranked unit in football, but pressure-packed games down the stretch with big playoff implications are where it hurts relying on Blake Bortles.
The Seahawks have the NFL’s seventh-best run defense per FootballOutsiders.com, meaning rookie RB Leonard Fournette is unlikely to dominate the game. If Fournette can’t get traction, it’ll be up to Bortles to light the way against the Seahawks’ secondary; that unit isn’t the Legion of Boom anymore, and no Richard Sherman hurts, but it’s still a veteran unit that has come on strong lately. Jacksonville is going to have to work for its points.
On the other side, while the Jags have stifled opposing passing games, Russell Wilson is a different threat than what they’ve faced so far. Jacksonville has benefitted from a less-than-stellar schedule, and when they did face a top QB – Ben Roethlisberger – he threw for 301 yards in a 30-9 loss. Wilson has come into his own as a dominant passer in 2017, and he is by far the most mobile threat the Jags will have faced this year. This spot is a new one for the Jaguars, but it’s old hat for this version of the Seahawks. I’ll gladly take the 2.5 points, because I expect them to win outright.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+3) over Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are a scary team to bet against lately, especially since QB Case Keenum is making a strong case as a legitimately good NFL starter. I’m not quite convinced just yet though, and he has a very tough task this week.
Keenum will be on the road against a Top 10 defense per FootballOutsiders.com belonging to the Panthers, and one that ranks inside the Top 5 vs. the run. The Vikings on the whole are also less desperate than the Panthers, who are in a three-way deatchmatch in the NFC South.
Carolina is facing must-wins every week, and QB Cam Newton is hitting his stride. The oft-criticized Cam hasn’t thrown a pick in his last four games, passed for six touchdowns over that span (four in one game), and averaged 65 rushing yards per game during that stretch. He’s looked healthier than he has all season, and the team has responded by turning him loose on the ground. Carolina’s improving offense, sharp play from Cam Newton, and underrated defense are too good to be getting points at home.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3) over Tennessee Titans
So maybe it’s me, but Blaine Gabbert has looked competent out there. I recommended him for DraftKings players as a solid buy, but I also think in real life he’s handled himself well. He has topped 200 yards in all three of his starts, and Arizona hasn’t been shy about letting him air it out. That’s a good thing, since the Titans rank 25th in the NFL against the pass.
Tennessee is also as shaky an 8-4 as you’ll ever see in the NFL. This squad has lost to the Raiders, Texans and Dolphins in 2017, owns a 12-9 victory in overtime vs. the Browns in which they failed to score a touchdown, and were humiliated by the Steelers in Week 11 40-17. This is a team with high upside offensively, but one that is highly inconsistent and has shown a tendency to play down to competition. Arizona, on the other hand, is a scrappy home team with an offense that’s better than it’s given credit for, especially if Adrian Peterson is back in the lineup. Do I love this team? No. Do I like them getting three points at home against a mediocre opponent? Very much so.