NFL Week 14 Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread
Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for Week 14 of the NFL season. These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.
Season Record 16-16-1
BUFFALO BILLS (+2) over Pittsburgh Steelers
This is very much a pick against the public; per Pregame.com, 95 percent of the action is on the Steelers. 95 percent!!!! That ignores completely the fact that the Bills have the best rushing offense in the NFL. That ignores the fact that the Steelers’ three-game winning streak has come against a slew of the NFL’s worst defenses. It also ignores the fact that Pittsburgh has quietly been a paper tiger in 2016, registering a 2-5 record against teams that are above .500. When the action is this overwhelmingly in one direction, put the pedal to the metal and go hard the other way.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3) over Seattle Seahawks
The Packers getting three points at home does seem odd, but it’s fair. They haven’t been the Packers of lore at Lambeau Field lately, putting forth inconsistent performances from week to week no matter where they play. That said, this is a nice spot to put your faith in Aaron Rodgers.
Two weeks ago Rodgers flashed his brilliance when he systematically took apart the Eagles on primetime. This week he’ll be in a must-win (if they want to win the division) against a Seahawks defense that looks brutal on paper, but just lost its captain, safety Earl Thomas. I like my odds with Rodgers and a healthy stable of wide receivers against a Seattle team that is without Thomas. 59 percent of bettors feel the same as of this writing, so you might not want to wait to long, lest the line go down.
Baltimore Ravens (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Ravens are in a dogfight for the AFC North, whereas the Patriots have the AFC East pretty much in hand. The Pats lost a great deal of their potency on offense after Rob Gronkowski was ruled out for the season, and they don’t have a very good defense to begin with. It’s better than you think against the run, but the Ravens are comfortable abandoning their run game when it’s not working in favor of Joe Flacco bombing it deep.
Don’t believe me? Flacco has chucked it 40 or more times in eight of Baltimore’s 12 games, and he’s topped 45 pass attempts four times. Flacco is averaging 271.5 yards per game, and he’s thrown for 300+ yards on three occasions.
The Ravens also have the NFL’s top run defense, which will slow New England down considerably, as they’ve leaned on LeGarrette Blount more than anyone could have imagined. This spread is the type of line that would make sense with a healthy Gronk tearing up the league. Now? It’s going to take more effort and brainpower from Bill Belichick.